The future - like history - is a process, not an event. We are living through that process right now, one that promises a further transformation of our society. We are only halfway there.
Ireland's future began 10 years ago. The budgetary measures introduced by Ray McSharry and his successors as Minister for Finance marked a turning point in Ireland's economic fortunes, and ultimately in our fortunes as a nation.
The past decade has seen a quite extraordinary story unfold as the phenomenon of the Celtic Tiger has swept away in a few short years many of the failings of previous generations. Even more remarkable is that this story is only at the halfway stage, in other words the decade ahead promises an equally dramatic wave of change and transformation: carrying us to a future destination barely imaginable just 10 years ago.
Of course, speculations about the long-term outlook for any country are inevitably fraught with difficulty. Though we can delineate certain long-term phenomena such as demographic and labour market trends that can be projected with reasonable certainty into the future; there are other phenomena such as technological innovations and economic cycles that are much harder to predict.
In this brief essay on the future we have tried to differentiate between these two broad categories of trends - the reasonably certain and the considerably uncertain - using the sources of uncertainty to create alternative scenarios for Ireland in 2010.
But first we look at what can be anticipated with reasonable certainty for the decade that lies ahead.
Middle-Age Spread
Ireland's population is set to become more middle aged in early 21st century - with the numbers aged 35-55 growing at nearly twice the national rate. Conversely, we will see a precipitous drop in the number of young people, as the falling birth rate of the 1980s and 1990s translates into a falling number of people in their late teens and early twenties. Ireland's population will nevertheless grow due to continuing falls in mortality rates, a levelling off in the birth rate and net immigration into Ireland.
Many of our European partners will be wrestling with the impact of an ageing population by 2010 (particularly with regard to the oldest age groups aged 70 and over). However, Ireland will actually have an increasingly benign demographic situation - with the ratio of people in dependent age groups to those of working age actually declining by 2010.
The Working Revolution
The labour shortages characterising Ireland at the end of the 20th century will get considerably worse in the early 21st century. The fall off in new entrants to the workforce due to demographic trends will dramatically shift negotiating power to employees - resulting in both substantial real wage rises and accelerated recruitment from the ranks of women returning to the workforce and from immigrants. Labour market shortages will be further exacerbated by the growing incidence of early retirement as today's thirty- and forty-somethings decide to cash in their substantial nest eggs (comprising both pension funds and directly held equities) and to retire by the early fifties.
The types of work we will be doing by 2010 will also change dramatically. For example, the majority of farmers will live in cities, returning to family farms at weekends to tend to their crops and other labour un-intensive agri-activities. Furthermore, the demands of a global, communications saturated economy will mean that a growing proportion of the workforce will work atypical hours, with shift and weekend working becoming increasingly common.
e is for Everything
Indeed, information and communications technologies will be ubiquitous in our homes, workplaces and leisure venues. By 2010 it is unlikely that we will still think of the Internet as a separate service of channel distinct from, say, the telephone or television for that matter. The convergence of technologies that will occur over the coming decade will result in us having much the same attitude towards telecommunications as we do towards electricity - as long as it works when you switch it on it really isn't something you give much thought to. Nevertheless, we can anticipate that at least two million adults in Ireland will have access to the Internet - though most of them will think of it as their videophone/home shopping/entertainment service.
Likewise, such a future suggests that there will no longer be separate companies responsible for the provision of electricity, of telephony and of broadcast television - instead there will be a rapid consolidation of providers of these services, each competing to offer a "one-stop-shop" solution to the full gamut of households' and individuals' service needs.
Family Fortunes
The average family will undoubtedly be better off by the end of the next decade. Indeed, by 2010 consumers will be spending £150 for every £100 they are spending today. Fuelled by rising real wages, falling tax levels and collapsing prices in the wake of the euro and the Internet, Irish consumers will enjoy a high level of discretionary spending.
This in turn assumes a benign economic environment in the decade ahead. Though such seems the most likely scenario at this point in time - barring the usual suspects of Y2K catastrophes, environmental collapses, international conflicts and stock market crashes - there will undoubtedly be ups and downs on the road to the future. But Ireland remains well positioned to ride out any predictable turbulence, with the trend in Irish economic growth continuing to exceed the EU average - converging only slowly to a more modest rate of growth.
However, even with such a benign economic environment, consumers will not have it all their own way. We expect that the statutory retirement age in Europe (including Ireland) will rise inexorably towards 70 - eventually seeing the abolition of any statutory age. The sheer economic pressure of pension commitments and demographic trends will render untenable the current configuration of state-funded pensions across Europe.
Workers will therefore bear considerably more of the cost of their own retirement themselves - with the present generation having the unfortunate double burden of funding the current system for existing pensioners whilst funding their own future pension provisions at the same time.
Eco-nomics
As the global human population heads towards 10 billion in the first half of the next century, we can expect to see growing concerns about the environmental impact of human activity. Global warming, water scarcity, food shortages and pollution will all have a bearing on the emerging political agenda in Europe and ultimately in Ireland. Though our concerns will be more prosaic - such as controlling the impact of house building on scenic landscapes - issues relating to the quality of life in Ireland will move steadily up the political agenda as economic issues recede.
Indeed, the economic cost of dealing with our failure to anticipate the ecological impact of decisions taken (or not taken) during the 1980s and 1990s will rise considerably towards 2010. Green taxes to fund expensive waste collection and recycling services - among others - will bring home to Irish voters the cost of previous indifference to environmental matters.
Alternative Futures
We conclude by setting out three alternative scenarios for Ireland in 2010.
The scenarios draw upon the themes outlined above to tell three different stories about what life will be like at the end of the "second half". We use this methodology often with clients of Amarach Consulting. However, we always stress that scenarios are not forecasts. Rather, they serve to tease out the boundaries of the possible future, guiding us in turn to prepare for the worst even as we hope for the best.
The first two scenarios paint relatively opposing views of the future - one quite optimistic, and the other quite pessimistic. The third scenario is designed to offer a more lateral view of the future - recognising that the potential exists for "wild cards" to change the picture of the future completely.
The future - like history - is a process, not an event. We are living through that process right now, one that promises a further transformation of our society. We are only halfway there.
Gerard O'Neill is Managing Director of Amarach Consulting while Mark Henry is a senior research consultant.
The authors can be contacted on mark.henry@amarach.com Amarach's website is: www.amarach.com.