Just six days before voting takes place on the Amsterdam Treaty, the number of uncommitted voters is still very high, although it nevertheless appears likely it will be approved.
However, the stated lack of opinion and knowledge by a large proportion of the electorate, together with the 61 per cent who either do not believe the treaty will make any difference to them or have no opinion, will discomfit the Yes side.
The efforts of the Referendum Commission and of the Yes and No campaigns have had a limited impact on the electorate. This latest poll was taken 10 days before polling day. Thirty per cent of the electorate still said they had no opinion on the treaty, while a further 13 per cent said they may not vote at all.
A clue to the lack of public excitement about the Amsterdam debate is to be found in the 42 per cent who either believe the treaty will make no difference to Ireland or have no opinion on whether it will or not. More telling, 43 per cent of people believe the treaty will make no difference to themselves personally, with a further 18 per cent having no opinion. The campaigners appear to have failed to convince a substantial section of the electorate that there is one "big idea" in the treaty worth getting worked up about. The energetic No campaign has just 11 per cent support for its position to show for its efforts. The overwhelming political forces ranged on the Yes side have won over fewer than half of the voters.
Despite the No side's warnings that military neutrality will be ended and the Yes side's suggestion that a No vote is a vote against the benefits the EU has brought, much of the electorate remains unmoved. Forty-six per cent of those polled said they would probably or definitely vote Yes, while 11 per cent say they would probably or definitely vote No; 30 per cent say they have no opinion while 13 per cent have yet to decide whether or not to vote.
The public has been clearly resistant to absorbing the information which has been published by the Referendum Commission and the campaigners.
Fifty-one per cent said they still do not have enough information to make a decision. Forty per cent said they do have enough.
The number saying they did not have enough information was highest in Munster and among 18to 24-year-olds, both at 59 per cent. The older the age group, the more satisfied they were with the information available. Farmers, ABC1s and Fianna Fail supporters were the most satisfied with the amount of information available to them.
Support for the Amsterdam Treaty is highest among the over65s (53 per cent) and lowest among the 18-to-34s (38 per cent). Fifty-three per cent of Fianna Fail voters will probably or definitely vote Yes; 40 per cent of Fine Gael supporters; 46 per cent of Labour supporters; 54 per cent of PD voters; and 43 per cent of others.
Farmers and the higher socioeconomic groups (ABC1s) are also somewhat more enthusiastic about the treaty than the lower so cio-economic groups (C2DEs). The No vote is lowest among farmers at 8 per cent compared to the average 11 per cent.
However, the indifference and ignorance about the Amsterdam Treaty does not mean indifference and ignorance about European issues generally. When it comes to expressing views on the effect of EMU - literally the pound in the citizen's pocket - the number with no opinion goes right down.
The uncertainty among commentators on the effects of EMU has not prevented the public developing clear views on it - 41 per cent believe EMU will improve Ireland's economic performance, 24 per cent believe it will damage Ireland's economic performance with 25 per cent saying it will make no difference. Just 10 per cent have no opinion.
Optimism about EMU is greatest among the 18-to-24 age group (48 per cent), lowest among the over-65s (33 per cent) and higher among men (46 per cent) than women (36 per cent).
The poll shows strong support for Ireland's participation in the Petersberg Tasks, military peacekeeping and peace-making tasks in European conflict situations decided upon by the EU.
Sixty-two per cent said Ireland should support EU decisions to send troops on such tasks and should participate in them; 24 per cent said Ireland should allow the EU take such decisions but should not itself participate in the missions; while just 8 per cent said Ireland should block such decisions.
While supporting Irish participation in such common EU military actions, those polled are strongly protective of Ireland's independence visa-vis the EU. Thirty per cent believe the State should unite fully with the EU, while 54 per cent want the State to protect its independence within the union. The gap between those favouring integration over independence is smallest among the 18- to 24-year-olds (46 to 37 per cent) and greatest among the over-65s (58 to 21 per cent).
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, yesterday accused the No campaign of spreading "systematic misinformation" about the treaty, suggesting this was the main barrier to public understanding. However, with just 11 per cent supporting the No cause, this does not appear to be an adequate explanation.
He may have been closer to the mark when he told the ICTU yesterday that the Amsterdam Treaty was "not an emotional experience. It is not revolutionary. It will not, of itself, change the face of Europe."