Summit of EU leaders manages to avoid talking about Iraq

The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, turned wearily to his Foreign Secretary, Mr Jack Straw, and gave his ironic assessment …

The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, turned wearily to his Foreign Secretary, Mr Jack Straw, and gave his ironic assessment of the weekend's meeting of EU leaders in Barcelona.

"It's as ever a joy," he said, unaware of the television camera broadcasting his words to the world.

Mr Blair insisted later that his remark was light-hearted but he admitted that he could think of more attractive ways of spending a Saturday morning than talking about the liberalisation of the European energy market.

Barcelona's agenda was dominated by dull, economic issues, many so complicated that only a handful of officials in Europe's capitals understand them fully.

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But the EU leaders resisted an opportunity to liven up the summit by holding a formal discussion on the foreign policy issues everybody was talking about outside the conference chamber in Barcelona.

"The two most pressing foreign policy issues facing Europe are the transatlantic relationship and the prospect of American action against Iraq. But the meeting refused to address them," complained one exasperated EU official.

Belgium sought last week to put Iraq on the agenda but Spain's Mr JosΘ Maria Aznar refused. And when the Belgian Prime Minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, attempted to raise the issue over dinner on Friday, Mr Aznar told him politely to shut up.

Despite the decision to avoid formal discussion of Iraq, a consensus is emerging among the EU's bigger member states over how to respond to US action.

European leaders believe a US strike against President Saddam Hussein is almost inevitable and are preparing to offer Washington support.

European diplomats emphasise the need for Mr Saddam to comply with UN resolutions by allowing inspectors to investigate his regime's capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction.

Russia, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have urged Baghdad to bend to international pressure in order to avoid war.

However, Russian negotiators are pessimistic about their chances of persuading the Iraqi leader to do what is necessary.

"They say it is like dealing with Milosevic in his last days, a leader surrounded by people who tell him what he wants to hear and has lost touch with reality," said one diplomat.

EU officials believe that President Bush is determined "not to take yes for an answer" from Baghdad and to find a justification for launching military action.

One senior official said that no European country actually believes an attack on Iraq is a good idea but most are preparing to support US action and the few critics - mainly among the Scandinavian countries - are likely to remain silent.

"It is the ultimate in foreign policy cynicism on all sides," he said.

The Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs have emphasised the role of the UN in seeking to persuade Iraq to comply with its international obligations.

Germany's Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schr÷der, has said Berlin will only participate in US-led action if it is backed by a UN mandate.

But Mr Cowen declined to say on Saturday if a new UN mandate would be required to justify a strike against President Saddam.

With refreshing candour, the Commission President, Mr Romano Prodi, admitted on Saturday night that he was uneasy about Washington's plans.

He suggested that the EU might oppose an attack on Iraq but signals from Europe's capitals suggest that most member-states are already resigned to the inevitability of war.

The Taoiseach was in buoyant spirits throughout the weekend's summit, perhaps because his EU partners responded so positively to his request for a declaration confirming that the Nice Treaty would not affect Ireland's military neutrality.

The other leaders are eager to help Mr Ahern win a second referendum on Nice and they are relieved that the Government is not seeking to renegotiate the treaty.

But one large member-state is considering tabling a proposal at December's summit in Copenhagen aimed at ensuring no single member-state will be able to frustrate the wishes of all the others.

Described by one official as "two strikes and you're out", the proposal would demand that any country that failed to ratify two treaties would be expelled from the EU.

"Bertie needs to raise the stakes in the next referendum. If Ireland says no again, it's on its way out of the union," the official said.