CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Tipperary North: Eibhir Mulqueen, Midwest Correspondent, reports that Fianna Fail will be fighting hard for a second seat
Once a reliable seat for Fine Gael, Tipperary North is now a stronghold for the former party member turned Independent, Michael Lowry, who topped the poll in the 1997 general election.
That was three months after his resignation from Fine Gael. In the meantime, unburdened by a ministerial brief or party commitments, he has been able to devote his considerable energy to the constituency both as a TD and a county councillor.
With the three-seater otherwise dominated by Fianna Fáil, including the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, attention will be focused on the seat being vacated by his colleague, Michael O'Kennedy, who is retiring.
O'Kennedy's seat was never safe, which he learnt to his cost in 1992. He lost to John Ryan of Labour, who had 127 more votes than him.
In 1997 a careful vote-transferring exercise kept the second seat secure, and Fianna Fáil will be relying on this strategy again to get the Roscrea-based Michael Smith elected along with Cllr Máire Hoctor, a schoolteacher in Nenagh.
On their side is the 42 per cent support the party received in 1997 and the current national upswing for the party.
Challenging Ms Hoctor is Senator Kathleen O'Meara of Labour, also operating from a Nenagh base, who will have to dramatically improve her 1997 showing of 4,126 votes, far short of the 9,989 quota.
Unlike Máire Hoctor, she performed poorly in the local elections in 1999. Depending on who is eliminated first, the other will benefit from a women's vote.
Campaigning for a Fine Gael seat is Noel Coonan, an auctioneer from Templemore, whose thankless task is to garner the residual party support which will transfer if, as is expected, Michael Lowry reaches the quota. In 1997 the Fine Gael candidate, Cllr Tom Berkery, was placed fourth on 11 per cent of first preferences.
This time there is a perception of damage being done by the Fine Gael leader, Michael Noonan, when, during a local radio interview, he ruled out the possibility of Michael Lowry returning to the fold as long as he was leader. Transfers from Michael Lowry to Noel Coonan may suffer as a result.
Standing for the Progressive Democrats is a Thurles businessman, Bill Dwan, but any breakthrough the party will make to rural Ireland will not occur here.
A Tipp FM poll last week put his support at 2.1 per cent, with Michael Lowry at 27 per cent, Michael Smith 26.7 per cent, Máire Hoctor 20.7 per cent, Kathleen O'Meara 11.4 per cent, and Noel Coonan 11.4 per cent.
Prediction: FF 2, Independent 1. No change.