TAIWAN:TAIWAN, A self-ruled island recognised by just 23 countries and seen by China as a rogue region to be brought back by force if necessary, votes on a new president next week, and also on an increasingly unpopular referendum on whether to apply for UN membership.
Opinion polls show presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Nationalist Party (KMT) holds a big lead over rival Frank Hsieh from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who favours a harder line towards Beijing.
The election is crucial as the result will dictate whether the Taiwan Strait remains one of the flashpoints of tension in Asia or if relations with mainland China will become closer.
Currently it seems that whoever wins the vote on March 22nd, the outcome is likely to be improved cross-Strait relations, as both candidates are opposed to separatism and favour better economic links with the mainland. There is a growing interest across the political spectrum in maintaining the status quo, and the KMT looks set to benefit from that desire.
This softer line towards Beijing from both candidates is in marked contrast to president Chen Shui-bian, who has steered the DPP on a pro-independence course during his eight years at the helm and consistently irritated the communist leadership in Beijing who have to juggle the need for regional stability with pressure from within the army to do something about Taiwan.
Chen is an unusual political figure, with incredible powers of recovery.
He has survived corruption scandals, questions about his shooting during the 2004 election, and repeated rows with the US by maintaining his populist and popular pro-independence stance.
China has considered Taiwan a maverick province ever since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT lost the civil war with Mao Zedong's communists and fled to the island in 1949.
The KMT ran Taiwan as a one-party state for 51 years and has been trying to regain the presidency since losing the office to Chen in 2000 and again in 2004.
Although the KMT is communist China's arch rival, these days the KMT leadership wants more trade with China and supports reunification.
KMT candidate Ma (57) is a former mayor of Taipei, and a smooth, Harvard-educated lawyer who has campaigned on a platform of closer business links with China to help boost the economy. Opinion polls show him with up to 54 per cent of voter support for his policy of the "Three Nos" - no talk of reunification, no pursuit of independence, and no use of force.
Hsieh (61), a former premier, has been trying to distance himself from the more extreme views of Chen, but his support is still registering at just 28 per cent.
As one of his last acts as president, Chen has put up for a vote a referendum that asks whether the island should apply to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan rather than the Republic of China, as it is formally known.
The plebiscite could turn into a major embarrassment for Chen, as it has managed to anger both Beijing and Taiwan's allies in Washington and the EU, and has proven unpopular at home.
Beijing believes the referendum is an attempt by the Taiwanese to underline their independence claims by subterfuge and it has voiced strong opposition to the plebiscite. The US, Taiwan's only major ally that has pledged to defend the island if China ever intervenes militarily, is unhappy that the referendum could ratchet up tensions in the Strait of Taiwan, one of Asia's trouble spots, and has expressed its opposition to the referendum.
US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice described the referendum as a "bad idea", and repeated the US opposition during a recent visit to China.
China's Xinhua news agency prominently ran a statement by Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern that Ireland did not to support the referendum.
"At this time it is vital that any form of unilateral action that might undermine the status quo is avoided and I therefore do not support the holding of this referendum," said Ahern, succinctly summarising most countries' view of the plebiscite.
According to opinion polls, voter support for the DPP's referendum is less than 10 per cent.
In Taiwan, a referendum requires the participation of more than 8.5 million registered voters, or half the electorate, to be valid, and requires the support of more than 4.25 million voters to pass. Not an encouraging sign for the DPP.
Chen has been forced to try to separate the presidential election and the referendum, using methods that some commentators have described as "desperate".
He is asking the KMT to back either a revised UN referendum or to agree to a different date for the plebiscite.
The KMT has claimed the plebiscite was a publicity stunt by Chen aimed at drawing pro-independence voters to the election booths on polling day and giving the DPP a boost.
It supports a plebiscite about joining the UN but is opposed to trying to join as Taiwan, and so has split its support.
With more than two-thirds of a majority in parliament, the KMT is in a strong bargaining position and it is not too keen on listening to the president's calls for compromise on the referendum.
Hsieh is also trying to shore up support for his flagging campaign and tried to keep the plebiscite off the main agenda.
"There are still a few days left before the legislature goes into a recess. The governing and opposition parties should continue to negotiate," he said.
China took over Taiwan's seat at the UN in 1971.
Taiwan was represented under the name "Republic of China" and the nationalist KMT government claimed to be the legitimate government and to represent all of China.
However, warmer relations between China and the rest of the world have left Taiwan out in the cold, with only a few Pacific states and a handful of African and Latin American states offering official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The Taiwanese have periodically tried to rejoin as the Republic of China, including an effort last year, but it has been consistently rebuffed by Beijing, which is recognised by 170 countries and has a veto on the the United Nations Security Council.
