MONTENEGRO: The architects of Montenegro's split from Serbia look set to triumph tomorrow when the world's youngest independent state holds a general election.
Opinion polls give the ruling coalition led by prime minister Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists 45.1 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the main opposition, Predrag Bulatovic's pro-Serb Socialist National Party, on 18.8 per cent support.
Almost four months after backing sovereignty in a referendum, most Montenegrins appear to trust pro-independence leader Mr Djukanovic to take their tiny country towards membership of the EU and Nato, and to attract foreign investors.
His main opponents emphasise the Adriatic state's historic ties to Belgrade over the need for swift integration with Brussels - an approach that looks doomed to failure after the nation rejected such a policy in the referendum.
"The two blocs are once again fighting for votes either from those who support Montenegro's nationhood or from those who strongly oppose it," said Srdjan Darmanovic, of Montenegro's Centre for Democracy and Human Rights.
Mr Djukanovic (44) has ruled Montenegro for 15 years as president or prime minister, since Yugoslavia began falling apart in 1991, and was an ally of former Serb president Slobodan Milosevic until 1996, when he sought favour with the West.
By the time Nato air strikes drove Milosevic's forces from Kosovo in 1999, the US and EU saw Mr Djukanovic as a reformist ally, despite investigations in Italy into his alleged leading role in a major Adriatic smuggling ring.
The tall, dapper Mr Djukanovic brushed off the accusations and his former alliance with Milosevic, and pushed for independence from Belgrade, a move that Brussels, fearing unrest, persuaded him to postpone until this year.
He has called tomorrow's vote "the second leg of the match we played until May 21st".
"After winning back our home at the referendum, at these elections we should pick a responsible caretaker," he said.
Taking part in elections for the first time will be the Movement for Change, headed by Nebojsa Medojevic, a fierce critic of Mr Djukanovic, and the country's second most popular politician. Mr Medojevic's main goal is to oust Mr Djukanovic's "autocratic regime" and suppress smuggling, money laundering, and embezzlement, which tarnished Montenegro's image in the past. The latest poll puts the Movement for Change third with 16.2 per cent of the vote.
"Djukanovic has done nothing in life other than be a student, a prime minister and a president," said Mr Medojevic.
Mr Djukanovic said of his rival: "His biggest success was winning a school competition to see who can eat the most baklava."
