ARMY INTELLIGENCE:THE PROVISIONAL IRA had approximately 250 "hardcore activists" in counties adjacent to the Border in early 1977, according to a secret intelligence assessment supplied to the Irish government by the Defence Forces for that period.
The document, dated February 15th, 1977, which emerged in the latest State Papers released through the National Archives for public viewing, states that "about 100" were operating from the Republic. The group of southern-based activists consisted of, "about 40 locals with 20 from other parts of the Republic and the remainder fugitives from Northern Ireland", according to the Army assessment provided to the Department of Foreign Affairs.
The document continues: "They appear to be broken down into active service units, each of which could muster the following approximate strengths at any one time: north Louth 10; Castleblayney 6; Monaghan 10; Cavan 10; Leitrim 6; Bundoran/south Donegal 10; Bundoran/north Donegal 10; Meath/south Louth/west Donegal 20.
"In the remaining counties of the Republic where [the] main activity has been painting slogans, there appears to be only a handful active at any time in a military sense.
"Some of these groups become more prominent at different times, such as Offaly-Laois where there appears to be a hardcore of about 20 active for some time."
The assessment goes on: "Despite this apparent dispersion of PIRA activists, they are credited with the capacity to assemble a unit of up to 40 experienced fighters for a specific job in any part of the country and stand a good chance of avoiding detection prior to an attack. "In a well-planned raid they might even expect to avoid capture. They could also count on being able to activate another 50 support men at short notice for such second-line tasks as providing transport, couriers, hidings [hiding places], warnings, diversions and blocking roads."
Erosion of strength, supplies and support meant the Provisionals would be forced back on small-scale attacks such as, "ambush by parties of two or three at short-range".
"But because this type of terror tactics does not seriously affect the overall situation, the PIRA must, therefore, strive for the big spectaculars which intentionally or otherwise carry the danger of heavy civilian casualties."
The document complains that members of the Defence Forces "talk far too freely in public on matters of security interest" and reports that during the previous year, 1976, there were "approximately 30 discharges on security grounds" in the Army and "somewhat more" in the reserve, then known as An Fórsa Cosanta Áitiúil (FCA).
Commenting on the withdrawal of special category status from republican and loyalist prisoners in Northern Ireland, the document states: "It is doubtful if there is sufficient dedication or purity of motive among the IRA or the loyalist paramilitaries to sustain a worthwhile campaign of disobedience, unless, of course, they are driven to it by desperation.
"It is now known that feelers were sent out at Christmas [1976] by the top PIRA leadership to interest the British authorities in another long ceasefire. This may explain the low level of violence immediately following the PIRA unilateral Christmas ceasefire. This attempt is seen as an indication of a loss of confidence among the leadership."
On IRA activities south of the Border, the Army assessment is that: "The PIRA prohibition on attacks against institutions of the Republic no longer has any force. Indeed, it is to be expected that Army and gardaí will be singled out for attack."
On the Official IRA and its political counterpart, Sinn Féin the Workers' Party, the document regards their renunciation of violence "merely as a tactical manoeuvre to tide them over the next couple of years" and comments: "The OIRA/Sinn Féin must be seen as essentially a revolutionary organisation and a serious threat in the long term."
Commenting yesterday on the claim that IRA peace "feelers" were sent to the British government in December 1976, Ruairí Ó Brádaigh, then president of Sinn Féin, said he did not believe this report " had any basis in fact".