The nomination of the former Italian Prime Minister, Mr Romano Prodi, as both interim and long-term President of the European Commission now appears increasingly certain. Crucially, last night, Spain indicated its support for the candidature of Mr Prodi who officially threw his hat in the ring this weekend.
He has now been backed by at least four of the largest EU states and to date has been opposed by none.
And EU Foreign Ministers late last night over dinner agreed that their candidate for the presidency should be a long-term candidate who would serve five and a half years, a conclusion that is now likely to be endorsed by the Berlin summit this week and rules out internal candidates and most of the others suggested for the post.
Ministers spoke tentatively, sources say, of a mini-summit in the third week of April to confirm the actual name of the President. In their discussions of the other summit challenge, Agenda 2000, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, warned the German Presidency that their latest compromise paper was actually making agreement more difficult on some of the key problems facing Ireland.
Yet these very difficulties had been specifically acknowledged by their foreign minister only last week, he said. He attacked the cutback from £12 billion to £7 billion proposed by the Presidency in the allocation for regions in transition.
And he warned against any attempt to claw back farm overspending through "degressivity", arguing that the savings, amounting to 2.3 per cent a year, could be made through "prudent management". "To reopen the financing aspects of the farm deal could call the whole deal into question," he warned. Irish sources have indicated that the Government could support Mr Prodi to lead the Commission although the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, hinted yesterday that they would prefer the Dutch Prime Minister, Mr Wim Kok. The latter has so far said he unwilling to do the job and currently leads a precarious coalition.
The fancied Spanish candidate, the Secretary General of NATO, Mr Javier Solana, is not available at the moment because of the Kosovo crisis. Britain, and France have all also signalled that Mr Prodi is an acceptable candidate.
Irish sources say they believe Germany is still ambivalent about Mr Prodi, partly because Bonn wants to keep its options open and partly because the discussion between Chancellor Schroeder and President Chirac on Friday was not as harmonious as the French have suggested.
It is still unclear, however, whether leaders will want to hasten the resigned Commission's departure or will be willing to leave it in place until after the European Parliament elections in June. In either case Mr Prodi and his team will face two sets of formal parliamentary hearings and ratifications as the treaty provides that a new Commission must start its term in January 2000.
The decision for the cabinet on who should be nominated to fill the Irish position will not have to be made until after the President is appointed. Of the Agenda 2000 discussions, Mr Andrews said they were complex and still difficult but "set fair for Berlin".
Geraldine Kennedy adds:
The Taoiseach announced, for the first time last night, that the Government hoped to get £4 billion in the Agenda 2000 negotiations, covering structural, Cohesion and CAP funds. "It will be hard, but we will try," he said on RTE.
Meanwhile, there is a general acceptance in Cabinet that Mr Padraig Flynn will not be reappointed as Ireland's EU commissioner in the short or longer term. Sources confirmed that the Progressive Democrats had made it clear to the Taoiseach that there were "no circumstances" in which they would agree to Mr Flynn's reappointment.
Mr Flynn is expected to remain as a caretaker commissioner until a new president is chosen.
