German Chancellor Angela Merkel is unlikely to suffer a late slide in support as she did in 2005 and seems well placed to form her centre-right coalition of choice after an election on Sunday, a leading pollster said.
The latest surveys released before the vote show Ms Merkel's conservative bloc (CDU/CSU) with a 9-11 point lead over the rival Social Democrats (SPD) and on track for a narrow parliamentary majority with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP).
But members of Ms Merkel's party remain nervous after they saw a similar poll lead nearly vanish on election day four years ago and were forced into a "grand coalition" with the SPD.
Matthias Jung, head of the Electoral Research Group (FGW) polling group, said he believed the chances of another conservative slide were slim given recent survey data.
"There hasn't been any change in the trend," Mr Jung told German daily Tagesspiegel. "At most the smaller parties could profit from losses by the major parties," he added, noting however that most of this movement would occur within the centre-right and leftist blocs and have limited implications for Merkel's prospects of sealing a partnership with the FDP.
Mr Jung also said the SPD was unlikely to win support of more than 25 per cent, which would be its worst score in the post-war era.
As head of a centre-right government, Ms Merkel has vowed to pursue cuts in income, corporate and inheritance taxes, probably starting in 2011.
She could also extend the life of nuclear plants that are scheduled to be phased out over the next decade, and take a more critical view of Turkey's bid to join the European Union.
Reuters