Threat of new and bitter Brexit phase looms

Good morning.

Told you it's back. Brexit returns as our lead story this morning with Brussels Correspondent Naomi O'Leary and yours truly reporting that the Irish Government and the EU are engaged in an urgent bid to dissuade the UK from triggering article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol.

Senior British officials visited Dublin for meetings with Irish Government officials this week where the tone has been frank. The British characterise the article 16 question as “when/if” while the Irish side are fiercely opposed to the move, believing it to be neither warranted nor responsible.

The fear in Dublin is that triggering article 16 – which suspends parts of the protocol – would lead to tit-for-tat retaliation between the two sides, ultimately endangering the broader free trade agreement between the EU and UK and raising the prospect of a trade war.

Government and EU try to dissuade UK from triggering article 16

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Conditions in place for ‘rapid conclusion’ to talks on NI protocol

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This would present huge economic obstacles to Ireland and could inflame the situation on the ground in the North, Dublin fears.

EU officials played down the threats of an immediate escalation, such as giving notice the EU intended to set aside the trade agreement; stressed it was continuing to talk to the UK; and said they believed its package of proposals was the basis for an agreement for operating the protocol in a way acceptable to unionists.

But despite efforts, the expectation in both Dublin and Brussels is that the UK will go ahead and trigger the mechanism. That seems certain to commence a new and bitter phase of Brexit.

Our lead story is here.

Elsewhere, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the Government was dusting down its Brexit contingency plans – in other words, planning for a no-deal Brexit. If the EU gives notice on the termination of the trade agreement, that's the countdown that we're in. Again.

Here's a helpful explainer from Northern Editor Freya McClements on what might happen if the UK triggers article 16.

On our oped pages, Ronan McCrea considers the EU's options and concludes that returning to the threat of a no-deal Brexit may be on the cards.

And FT columnist Martin Wolf also weighs in with a devastating critique of the British government's actions.

Death of Seán FitzPatrick

Elsewhere the papers are full of coverage of Seán FitzPatrick, the former Anglo-Irish Bank chief executive whose death was announced yesterday. FitzPatrick was a flamboyant banker whose gravity-defying success in growing the bank during the 1990s and 2000s was followed by catastrophe – for his bank, for himself and for the country. He became a national bete noir, though he was acquitted in two criminal trials.

FitzPatrick’s notorious game of golf with then taoiseach Brian Cowen became a sort of symbol of the relationship between banking, property speculation, government and regulation (or lack of it) that led to the financial collapse, the privations during the subsequent period of austerity and ultimately the bailout.

It was of course over-simplistic and unfair to lay all this at FitzPatrick’s door. But he bore a greater responsibility than most.

Simon Carswell and Joe Brennan's front page piece is here.

There's a timeline of his life and career here, and an analysis of what he meant for politics here.

More mica trouble?

There’s trouble ahead on mica, it seems. Fine Gael TD Joe McHugh has warned he may quit the party if he is not satisfied with the compensation scheme currently being finalised in Government.

That is unlikely to see the householders' demand for 100 per cent redress met; the question is: will it be enough to be deemed reasonable by campaigners? Jennifer Bray reports.

Best reads

The Northern civil rights leader and former Fine Gael TD Austin Currie has died.

Much coverage by Dublin Editor Olivia Kelly of the revised transport plan for the capital published yesterday by the National Transport Authority. The assessment is not terribly positive. You'll be waiting a while for that Luas.

However, Michael McDowell's is rather more savage. It's a sick joke, he writes.

Environment and Science Editor Kevin O'Sullivan writes that the State's power grid is due for a major overhaul to accommodate the large increase in renewable energy planned.

The Indo zeroes in on one aspect of this for its lead story – it's going to mean more pylons to carry new power lines. Is that necessary? Well, yes. Will it cause a stink in areas affected? Also yes.

Playbook

Private Members’ business in the name of the Rural Independents group begins proceedings at 10am, during which the carbon tax may not be spoken fondly of.

Leaders’ Questions at noon, and a series of Government financial resolutions follow. Five pieces of Government legislation are up for debate for the rest of the day, with the weekly votes at 9.30pm.

The Seanad has a long day, kicking off at 10.30am and debating a series of Government Bills, including the latest planning and development Bill, and Private Members’ Bill to establish “safe zones” around facilities where abortions are provided, which would prohibit protests within 100m of the facilities.

It's a super-busy day at the committees with no fewer than 13 meetings, including Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe at the finance committee, an engagement on Brexit with members of the House of Lords at the Seanad's Brexit committee and discussions with economists on inflation at the budgetary oversight committee. Full details are here.

We’ll do our best to keep on top of things. Elsewhere, the Christmas lights are being turned on in Dublin city centre. Sure we won’t feel it now.