The revolving door of Northern Ireland politics

In 1999, then US president Bill Clinton got into a lot of trouble over off-the-cuff remarks he made about Northern Ireland.

He was at an event in Canada and was speaking about conflict hot-spots around the world.

"I spent an enormous amount of time trying to help the people in the land of my forebears, in Northern Ireland, to get over 600 years of religious fights," he said.

“And every time they make an agreement to do it, they’re like a couple of drunks walking out of the bar for the last time. When they get to the swinging door, they turn right around and go back in and say, ‘I just can’t quite get there’.”

North set for snap elections as McGuinness resigns

---

Arlene Foster says she is open for discussions with Sinn Féin

---

State losing more than €1bn a year to vulture funds, says Donnelly

---

Flanagan says North’s parties should ‘act responsibly’

---

There was outrage from the parties in the North and Clinton’s spokesman had to issue an apology the next day for an inappropriate comment.

Sure, the reference to a “couple of drunks” was a little juicy but the gist of what he was saying was on-the-pulse accurate: the circular arguments, the minutiae, and the infinitesimal progress.

The seeming breakthrough, the spectacular setback and back to square one for the thousandth time. Yep – déjà vu all over again.

At least we have some semblance of normal political dysfunction nowadays when the latest fissure has been created not by metal bullets but by, ahem, wood pellets.

The ‘cash for ash’ scandal does not centre so much on how the scheme was designed, even though that was an unmitigated disaster.

Anyone who signed up to the scheme got more from the grants than they paid for the fuel. You can spot the slight flaw right there.

Overall exposure: up to £490 sterling over a period of 20 years. That’s a huge chunk of change for a population of 2 million.

The controversy stems from allegations that DUP leader and First Minister Arlene Foster, who set up the scheme when she was environment minister, delayed closing it down once the flaws were discovered.

She has denied the allegations made by a former colleague Jonathan Bell.

It all left Sinn Féin in a strange position. It has called for a public inquiry but it was stonewalled by Foster.

“If Sinn Féin is playing a game of chicken, and they think we are going to blink in relation to me stepping aside they are wrong – I won’t be stepping aside.”

Martin McGuinness’s decision yesterday to resign as Deputy First Minister essentially collapses the executive.

Under the rules, Foster must now stand down too and it will trigger an election.

Sinn Féin’s enemies alleged the party’s motivation was political not principled and its action had put paid to a public inquiry.

Gerry Moriarty's report is here.

It was glaringly obvious yesterday how gaunt McGuinness looked. He has been ill since Christmas and has obviously not recovered fully yet.

Questions will inevitably be asked about his health and his political future.

Northern secretary James Brokenshire will now call an election between Arlene Brokenpromise and Martin Brokenrecord.

Brace yourselves for a tortuous year.

Crisis, what crisis?

Yesterday, Minister for Health Simon Harris tweeted chirpily: "Hospital waiting lists falling - 1st time in 2 years. 50% reduction in longest waiters too. 2017 - the year we drive down waiting times".

It was a big and brave promise and that tweet might come back and haunt him by the end of the year.

Here is Paul Cullen's report on it.

If he succeeds, he might be one of the few recent health ministers to leave the job not running a high political temperature.

The big January spike in A&E waiting lists gave the State’s youngest Minister a bit of a jolt and reminded him that Health is not a quickstep routine on the way to greater things.

Harris displayed a little naivety last week (and it is seldom he does) when he said the spike had taken him by surprise.

The early January figures are always high because of less staff working and a big rise in admissions.

This problem has been around for two decades and it has yet to be solved. I came across this article written by my colleague Eithne Donnellan a decade ago.

There are lots of voices and lots of agendas and it is still impossible to identify exactly why it happens.

Is it lack of staff in the frontline services? Or lack of beds in A&E or elsewhere? Or the refusal to use wards for trolleys? Or too many staff being rostered off at Christmas?

Maybe it is problems with job demarcation, or delayed discharges?

Why is it worse in certain hospitals? Is it a lack of step-down beds? Is it worse here than in all other comparable countries? And if so, why?

Despite this recurring January spectacle, the data and the explanations seems elusive and murky, especially to non-specialists.

I’m sure the issue will be the non-agenda item that dominates today’s Cabinet meeting.

If that wasn't enough, Simon Coveney has been facing his own winter spike.

The takeover of Apollo House certainly back footed the Minister for Housing and his plans to tackle homelessness.

Sure, there was an element of gesture to it but it was effective and did highlight what has become a major problem. There is a bigger problem that is harder to portray - and that is the hundreds of families living in cramped B and B's.

There were already plans well advanced to provide 210 beds in three new hostels for rough sleepers, all of which were due to open around Christmas.

Here is the latest news on how Apollo House situation was resolved.

Coveney has a big housing action plan under way, but it’s not like pulling a rabbit out of a hat.

It will take years - a decade to be brutally realistic - before the massive housing deficit we have will be put right. Unfortunately, that doesn’t butter any parsnips politically.

It’s been a tough time for the two Simons.

Tweets

Dublin Rathdown Fine Gael TD Josepha Madigan seems to have been hoodwinked by a fake news report.

She tweeted this after seeing a report about Donald Trump's denial he had mimicked and mocked a disabled reporter.

Madigan was particularly disturbed by Trump saying that Hitler had the same problem.

Unfortunately if she had looked at the site, Newstoad, she would have quickly understood it's a little like Waterford Whispers.

Once it was pointed out she tweeted an emoticon that signified “scarlet”.

Our favourite tweet over the Christmas period came from Minister for Transport Shane Ross, who actually took the bus into work in early January and tweeted from the No 44 in what was surely a novelty for him.

Frank McDonald later tweeted it was a pity the bus was being powered by harmful diesel rather than by renewable energy.

I can assure Frank there was enough hot air on the bus that day to drive it to Timbuktu and back.

The best response was this beauty from Daire Tully.

Best reads

Gerry Moriarty's incisive analysis on the consequences of Martin McGuinness's resignaiton.

Military flights through Shannon continued unabated throughout 2016.

Political Editor Pat Leahy reports that British chancellor of the exchequer Philip Hammond denied Brexit preparations were being poorly handed by his government.

He was in Dublin to meet Minister for Finance Michael Noonan yesterday.

A brilliant and fascinating profile of Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law, who is being appointed to a senior position in the White House.

And talking about Waterford Whispers, here's a beaut.

Playbook

The Dáil and Seanad are adjourned until next week.

The Cabinet meets this morning, and while the A&E crisis will dominate, Sarah Bardon reports that Minister of State Eoghan Murphy is bringing forward proposals to set up a Commission to examine Ireland's personal injury awards in a bid to force down premiums.

The Cabinet will be expected to adopt 33 recommendations arising from a report on the motor insurance industry.

Later this week, Taoiseach Enda Kenny travels to Madrid to meet prime minister Mariano Rajoy over Brexit.

On the same day, the all-party Committee examining another nettle of an issue, water-charges, holds its first meeting of the year.