Testing times for Fine Gael as summer break nears

Good morning,

It hasn't been the easiest Dáil term for the governing party Fine Gael. If members were hoping to slip quietly into the blissful warmth of the summer recess, then they'll be disappointed following another testing week between woeful Brexit warnings and an increasingly angry Defence Force.

Today will bring fresh challenges as rural Ireland comes to Kildare Street. Hundreds of farmers are expected to protest outside the Dáil today shortly after noon, partly in response to the Mercosur trade deal.

The protest is being organised by the Beef Plan Movement, but it has in turn invited a large number of other agricultural organisations to join it.

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Organisers say they expect up to 1,500 people to show up, and the message will be the Government has lost touch with rural Ireland in more ways than one. The rally is likely to ratchet up the pressure on the Government, especially at a time when Fine Gael has been perhaps trying to win the affection of voters outside of the main cities.

This afternoon, Sinn Féin will table a motion calling on the Oireachtas to reject the trade agreement, which will see 99,000 tonnes of South American beef come into the market, which farmers claim could cost the Irish beef sector up to €750 million annually.

The Government is also set to bring its own counter-motion stating an economic assessment into the deal needs to be carried out first. This will look in the round at which sectors will do well out of the agreement, and which sectors will suffer. Once the results of that examination become clear, the Government will make a decision on whether to oppose or support the deal.

All of this comes after the Taoiseach yesterday revealed - in what is fair to say was somewhat unsurprising news - that he is to nominate Phil Hogan for another stint in Brussels. He consulted with the Independent Alliance before he gave Hogan the nod, but no concerns were raised. In fact, informed sources say the Alliance believes Hogan is the “right guy for the job”.

A questions-and-answers session was held in the Dáil last night, and Mr Hogan’s role in the trade agreement did not go unnoticed.

“The Government has failed politically, particularly when one considers that the EU Agriculture and Rural Development Commissioner is an Irishman,” said Fianna Fáil TD Charlie McConalogue.

“The Minister is trying to tell us that all of this is still up for grabs, but the reality is that there has been a political failure up to this point in time.”

Sources in Fine Gael say Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed has been feeling the pressure from within and without the party. Last week, he appeared to go further than the Government position by outlining ways in which the deal could be “thwarted”.

He continued in a similar vein last night, telling angry TDs the Government must rely on its own analysis of the deal before making up its mind.

“I will not be hidebound by any analysis done by the Commission,” he said.

He referenced a “particularly Brazilian exposure to shoddy practice” and “their disregard for environmental conditions”. None of this will instil confidence in anxious farmers.

Here's a report from Marie O'Halloran detailing how Mr Creed is doubling down.

Minister for Business Heather Humphreys has now promised an independent external consultant will size up the deal. When can we expect that? No time soon, it seems. “That is quite a comprehensive body of work, and it will take some time to do that.”

This one will run for years. Keep an eye on Irishtimes.com for coverage of this issue.

Best Reads

As we mentioned, it’s the last week of the Dáil, and instead of winding down it feels much more like we are gearing up for something huge. That, of course, is Brexit. More specifically: a crash-out, no-deal British exit.

A lot of our biggest reads today address the emerging serious realities, one of which is that the Government has subtly distilled its position and is now saying checks will actually be needed if there is a hard Brexit. The question is where.

Suddenly, the language has hardened. Here are our best Brexit reads.

One of the most alarming documents ever published by an Irish Government - that's how Pat Leahy describes the Brexit planning document released on Tuesday.

Fiach Kelly details how the Tánaiste says a no-deal Brexit will involve checks on goods.

Sarah Burns writes about a new Oireachtas report that warns businesses in Border counties should immediately draw up strategies to be implemented post-Brexit.

Some UK products may disappear from our shelves as Brexit bites, writes Cliff Taylor.

Elsewhere . . .

The Dáil bar shuts after Micheál Martin spots "big, fat" rat.

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is being urged to slash capital gains tax in October's budget.

Catherine Sanz has details of a financial audit into a Catholic marriage-counselling agency.

Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Children Katherine Zappone will take parliamentary questions at 9:30am.

At 11.00am there will be statements on the Government response to the decision of the independent assessor Mr Justice Iarfhlaith in relation to survivors of child sexual abuse in schools that had been denied access to a State redress scheme. The CervicalCheck Tribunal Bill 2019 is also up.

Leader’s Questions will be taken at noon.

Leo Varadkar will take Taoiseach’s Questions at 13.02pm.

Topical issues are up at 14.47pm.

At 15.35pm, Sinn Féin has a motion in relation to the EU Mercosur Trade Agreement.

Government business will be taken at 17.35pm, with the CervicalCheck Tribunal Bill 2019, the Redress for Women Resident in Certain Institutions (Amendment) Bill 2019 and the Coroners (Amendment) Bill 2018.

After all of this, there will be statements on the report of the Public Service Pay Commission into recruitment and retention in the Permanent Defence Force.

At 23.00pm, the Dáil adjourns.

Seanad

Commencement matters kick off at 10:30am followed by the order of business an hour later.

At 12.45, senators will discuss the Courts (Establishment and Constitution) (Amendment) Bill 2018 - a Bill to increase the number of judges in the Court of Appeal.

The Judicial Appointments Commission Bill 2017 is then back again. The Bill, which proposes to reform how judges are appointed, has been championed by Shane Ross who says it will end what he calls “cronyism” in Irish judicial appointments.

There is then a Private Members’ business motion in relation to genetic testing.

Committees

It’s a very busy day for the Oireachtas committees as the wind-down of ordinary business continues apace.

The Joint Committee on Health meets at 9am to look at the role of voluntary bodies in the delivery of health and personal social services. It will hear from representatives from Epilepsy Ireland, The Wheel and the Disability Federation of Ireland.

Also at 9am, the Joint Committee on Justice and Equality will look at the issue of spent convictions and hear from the Irish Penal Reform Trust, Dr TJ McIntyre and the UCD Pathways Centre.

At 9.30am, the Joint Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government will discuss housing for people with a disability, continuing earlier hearings on the issue. Officials from the Department of Housing and Department of Health will appear.

The Joint Committee on European Union Affairs meets at 2pm to discuss the priorities of the Finnish presidency of the Council of the European Union with Ms Raili Lahnalampi, ambassador of Finland to Ireland.

The Joint Committee on Climate Action also meets at 2pm to discuss housing and retrofitting with officials from the Department of Communications and representatives from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland and the Construction Industry Federation.

At 14.45pm the Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight holds a private meeting.

The Joint Committee on Rural and Community Development will unveil a report on Brexit and the Border at 4pm.

At 16.45pm the Justice Committee will consider the Gaming and Lotteries (Amendment) Bill 2019.

At 5pm, the Joint Committee on Communications, Climate Action and Environment will discuss matters arising from the RTÉ Investigates programme that revealed up to one million litres of oil leaked from underground cables over a 20-year period.