Spring statement a political tactic devoid of spectacle

As a political spectacle, Tuesday’s spring statement was a non-event. As a political tactic, it may prove valuable for the Coalition in the long run.

Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin offered little new in their Dáil statements this afternoon and indulged in a generous dose of self-congratulation, with promises of more jam tomorrow - as long as nothing goes wrong and their economic assumptions hold. And they are returned to power.

No matter what Ministers say about reforming the budgetary process to bring it into line with other European countries, the statement was political in its conception and execution.

The idea was first floated in the aftermath of the substantial u-turn on water charges late last year when the Coalition was arguably at its lowest ebb.

The intention was to bring the debate back to where Fine Gael and Labour feel they are strongest: the economy.

Stretching the set piece out over two days is unnecessary, with more Dáil speeches to come tomorrow from the Taoiseach and Tánaiste.

Dáil business will be almost entirely given over to contributions from backbenchers extolling the Coalition’s achievements.

This evening Opposition sources are more convinced than ever the Government intends on going to the country this year.

“A distraction,” was the verdict of one. “It allows them to show what they are committed to do together before they plan party manifestos. The polls at Christmas frightened them and that’s what dictated this, little else.

“ I was convinced it (the election) will be before the end of the year but, whatever, it’s fully on now.”

Speculation in Leinster House has focused on either November or February as the most likely months for the election.

Yet, the statement was never meant to be a budget, mini or otherwise, but was intended to show broad intentions of where the Government wants go.

As well as bringing the debate back to the economy, the Coalition also wanted to define the economic debate and make the Opposition play on its terms.

Much as there was broad political acceptance in the past on bringing the deficit below 3 per cent of GDP, Ministers hope parties and deputies across the House will accept there is maximum of €1.5 billion available next year to cut taxes or increase spending.

Anyone who deviates from that will be accused of putting the recovery at risk.

The meat - such as it was - in the announcement came in Noonan’s contribution and the promise of tax cuts and reforms for the next five years.

He had already committed to continuing a tax cutting template similar to that outlined in last October’s budget for the next two budgets, should the Coalition achieve re-election.

On Tuesday he said this template would continue to Budget 2018.

More tax cuts would follow in the final two years but the method by which concessions will be devised has yet to be settled.

He re-emphasised what Fine Gael wants voters to hear: a vote for them is a vote for lower taxes. Yet beyond what was already committed to, Noonan was light on specifics.

The job for Brendan Howlin was trickier, and his speech was even more spartan.

Howlin and Noonan have decided that the spoils of recovery will be split 50-50 between tax cuts and spending increases. The spending measures will include public sector pay increases but it is not yet known how much of his pie Howlin is willing to offer the unions.

The bigger the slice put on the table, the less to provide for schools, roads, broadband and other areas which would appeal to the electorate at large.

While today’s proceedings in the Dáil were underwhelming, Fine Gael and Labour have effectively set out a manifesto for a second term.