If Phil Hogan thought he could leave the drama and consternation behind him when he flew out of Dublin Airport on Saturday morning for Brussels, he was wrong.
Only one story is dominating in the Brussels bubble, and it’s the fallout from the fateful golf soirée in Clifden. The Hogan affair has topped one of the busiest August periods most can remember in a city that usually shuts down for the month, consuming the day’s news cycle and the European Commission’s press conference.
Mr Hogan is one of the highest-profile commissioners, at the helm of the powerful trade portfolio which shapes policy around the world through the force of the European Union’s economic and regulatory might.
National political stories do not always break through in Brussels, where they are often drowned out by international priorities and the clamour of the affairs of 27 different member states.
But the coronavirus pandemic is not a national story. It's an issue that the European Commission has been consumed with addressing since February. A top official accused of breaking rules designed to curb the pandemic would have been a major story wherever it broke. The commission itself designed and launched an online service – Reopen EU – to help citizens know and follow local rules wherever they are travelling.
Whatever happens next Mr Hogan’s reputation as a canny operator has suffered major damage. Not least because he would have a better chance at weathering this scandal were it not for a series of traps he set for himself.
His team initially insisted he had travelled directly from Kilkenny to Galway. It subsequently emerged that he had been in and out of Kildare en route despite local lockdown restrictions, as he was stopped by gardaí there for using his mobile phone while driving.
This development made a spoofer of the European Commission press office, which had repeated Hogan’s claim about travelling “directly” to the golf event. And the manner of it – coming to light due to a driving infraction, which he had not disclosed – left a decidedly bad taste in the mouth.
The commission’s spokeswoman Dana Spinant took a noticeably cool tone towards Mr Hogan as she revealed that his boss, commission president Ursula von der Leyen, had received an account from him of his movements, but had sought further clarifications.
“She’s in the process of gathering facts and this is where we stand,” Ms Spinant said. “It is important of course for the president that rules are respected in respect to coronavirus rules, and quarantine regulations and recommendations in particular.”
Commissioners are hard to dislodge. Only one has been sacked in the past: Malta’s John Dalli, due to allegations that the tobacco industry tried to bribe him to change proposed legislation in 2012.
There are some who argue that commissioners should be above the fray, as once they are in place they represent the whole citizenry of the bloc, and to give the executive the necessary stability to persevere regardless of whatever intrigue might seize Budapest or Rome.
Logistical headache
Replacing commissioners is also a logistical headache. Appointments need to be approved by the European Parliament following hearings. The commission cabinet is a careful balance of geography, gender and political persuasion: a replacement would have to come from the Fine Gael pool to avoid triggering a wider reshuffle.
It would be a stretch for Ireland to retain the beefy trade portfolio. Dr von der Leyen might be more likely to move an existing commissioner into it, giving Ireland whatever vacancy emerges.
Unfortunately for Mr Hogan all of this has already been thought through, due to a move that is now transpiring to be a serious error.
In June he floated himself as a potential candidate to be the next director-general of the World Trade Organisation.
The bid fell flat. Allies who had supported him to become trade commissioner were puzzled and alienated, wondering why they had thrown their weight behind him, only for Mr Hogan to eye another prize just six months in.
Campaigning would have required him to step back from his job for months at a time when the pandemic poses unprecedented challenges to the global system, a trade war between the United States and China was rumbling on and talks about the future trade relationship with Britain near their denouement.
This makes it difficult for him to make what would be his strongest argument now – that he is indispensable – given that he himself was willing to walk off the job.
And it seriously ticked off his boss, Dr von der Leyen, who now holds his fate in her hands.
