Politicians most at risk when things are going well

Euphoria is a funny thing. You couldn't move last weekend without being smothered in it

Euphoria is a funny thing. You couldn't move last weekend without being smothered in it. By this weekend, it is doubtful if Bertie Ahern and his Ministers could even spell the word - or would want to.

As Drapier has so often said politics is a strange old business. Drapier's First Law is that the most dangerous time for any politician is when everything is going well, not a cloud in the sky, opinion polls rocketing and the future full of promise. That is the time to watch out. That is the time something goes wrong.

And so it was this week. Drapier heard whispers last weekend that Vincent Browne had a "big one" and if what Drapier heard then is accurate - which it is up to now - we are only in the early stages of this story.

This time there was little of the sense of drama and suspense which has been part and parcel of earlier stories. The best performances in Thursday's Special Debate came from Pat Rabbitte and Alan Shatter; the worst from Bertie Ahern. At times it looked as if he wasn't fully briefed or that, if he could last the two hours without conceding a goal, it would all go away.

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It won't. Already there are rumours of more to come and, if the past is any guide, one revelation inevitably sparks off another.

The immediate question is how this matter will be investigated. As things now stand, it may not be possible under their terms of reference for either of the tribunals to handle this matter, and Drapier's view is that the Oireachtas itself should take the lead, investigate these matters and do so publicly, speedily and effectively.

We can't go on having tribunals for ever, and Drapier also hears that some of the judges are becoming wary and weary of tribunalitis, a fear that the independence of the judiciary could be compromised if it is used more and more to adjudicate on political matters. It's worth thinking about.

The whole thing is unsettling and deeply unpleasant. It won't bring the Government down but it has done damage, most of all to Bertie himself but also to the PDs, who have been shattered by this episode. Mary Harney is clearly very angry and it was significant that not one of the PDs turned up in support of Bertie Ahern for Thursday's debate.

We also know from past experience that the PDs are invariably fragile at times of crisis and while there is no indication of that fragility shattering, the stresses and strains are there. As far as Mary Harney is concerned, the summer recess can't come fast enough but she also knows that there is no safe bolt-hole.

One interesting sidelight for us politicians this time is the fact that Dr Tony O'Reilly and Independent Newspapers are players and all of us are watching to see how the unfolding story is being handled. The early coverage was not reassuring - minimum coverage on Thursday, but a strong recovery yesterday. Drapier suspects the regular reporters at the Independent will want to cover the story like any other.

But it's a rare turn for us mere politicians to be in a position to monitor a major newspaper group covering itself and many of us still carry the marks of the lofty admonitions from the editorial pages of the Irish Independent over the years.

Certainly, Drapier suspects that the coining of that "payback time" phrase last year may be regretted. It probably didn't swing a single vote, annoyed many people and introduced a note of crudeness to political coverage.

It's one of those phrases which hangs around to haunt those who coined it many years after the event.

The aftermath of the referendums rumbled on. It may seem odd to say this after what has gone before, and as we face into a summer of tribunals, but Drapier has to say the Belfast Agreement and the referendum result have been good for politicians and for their standing.

Here was an issue which has plagued our country, not just for 30 years but for a 100 years, and insofar as it can be resolved, it has been. And the credit for that rests with politicians and the political process. In the end, patience, imagination and discipline delivered. And it was done by people putting the national interest first.

Drapier wishes he could be more sanguine about the Amsterdam Treaty. He has listened to Mary Harney, Bertie Ahern and Gay Mitchell and many others talk about the difficulties created by the McKenna judgment and the need to find some way of overcoming these problems.

Drapier himself has a problem with this kind of thinking. No matter what he said in the past, Drapier now believes the McKenna judgment was profoundly wise. It establishes a simple truth: the Constitution belongs to the people, not to the government, not to parliament, not to the State. As a consequence, no one side of an argument should be favoured over the other as far as public funding is concerned.

Drapier thinks far too much is being made about the lack of information. It's actually not true. People knew what they were voting for when 94 per cent voted Yes on the Belfast Agreement. And for the most part, those who voted No on the Amsterdam Treaty had their good reasons - no single reason but, like their Danish counterparts, a multiplicity of legitimate reasons. And good luck to them.

Drapier was pondering this matter in his hostelry the other day, just as Sunderland and Charlton were facing up to their penalty shoot-out. He got short shrift from his companion who put it bluntly to him: "The fact of the matter is you politicians hate referendums, and you hate them because you are not in control. Now shut up and watch the shoot-out." He is a Sunderland supporter and it didn't all end happily but Drapier feels he put his finger on the central issue.

People who voted No on Amsterdam knew what they were at, just as much as did those who voted Yes. And had we politicians been given a free run on the media, and been allowed plaster the country with pro-Amsterdam arguments, Drapier does not think the result would have been all that different.

The reality is that Europe is big and impersonal, it appeals to interest groups rather than to real people and some of those who are most militantly "European" are not always the best advertisements for the Euro cause.

Drapier thinks we should end this argument now. Let McKenna stand. The media did a good job and so did the advocates for and against and the people knew what they were doing. They knew as much as they wanted to know or needed to know. For ourselves, there is a strong case for looking at how we handle European business to see if we can make it more voter-friendly.

Meanwhile, Drapier's friends tell him John Cushnahan was annoyed he didn't get a positive mention last week. Let Drapier assure John this weekend. Yes, John, you are a hard-working and effective MEP.