The Palestinian Authority could face serious unrest if the US insists on the arrest, prosecution and jailing of militants engaged in the uprising against Israel's occupation. Indeed, the Palestinian President, Mr Yasser Arafat, may be challenged by both his security services and the street as early as next week if the new US envoy, Mr Anthony Zinni, demands widescale detentions.
Palestinian security services find it increasingly difficult to hold militants as long as Israel assassinates activists, bulldozes houses and besieges and occupies Palestinian-ruled towns. The police are also reluctant to imprison militants or place them under house arrest while Israel bombs jails and seizes or kills individuals in their homes.
At the end of last month the chief of Palestinian security in Gaza, Mr Muhammad Dahlan, submitted his resignation in protest against an order to arrest members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine following the assassination by the Front's military wing of the Israeli Tourism Minister, Mr Rehavam Ze'evi. Although his resignation was rejected, he can be expected to oppose an arrest campaign as part of the effort to secure ceasefire.
The most recent poll showed that 59 per cent of Palestinians oppose the arrest of activists. Last weekend there were two days of rioting in the town of Jenin after a Hamas activist was detained by the Palestinian police. This popular pressure was bolstered by a demand to release the man from the dozen factions which have joined forces to prosecute the rising, the intifada.
Therefore, on Wednesday when Palestinian policemen stopped gunmen from Mr Arafat's own Fatah group who were preparing to fire on an Israeli settlement in the northern West Bank, the men were warned off and sent home. To arrest them would have disrupted an effort to enlist Fatah's support to shore up the waning authority of Mr Arafat.
Without Fatah's backing he would not be able to take advantage of falling popular support to curb the intifada. Last month 75 per cent of Palestinians supported its continuation while 18 per cent called for a halt. This month 58.6 per cent said they wanted to carry on while 29.5 per cent favoured ending the rising. But Mr Arafat will have to proceed cautiously: 63.2 per cent of Palestinians have little faith in the US initiative and claim that it is "insufficient" to bring positive results.
Thirty Israelis with relatives killed in Palestinian terror attacks are to bring a case against Mr Arafat in a Belgian court, taking advantage of a 1993 law which allows Belgium to try foreign nationals for war crimes committed abroad.
Their decision puts Belgium in a difficult position, because 28 survivors of the Sabra and Shatila refugee camp massacres in Beirut 19 years ago have lodged a similar complaint against the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, using the same legal mechanism.
