No one seems to know whether the relentless campaigning on Obama's healthcare plans is having an impact, writes DAN BALZin Washington
ASK WHITE House officials where the debate over healthcare stands and they sometimes sound as baffled as everyone else.
They’ve watched the angry townhall meetings. They’ve received reports back from Democratic lawmakers of civil and productive discussions. They’ve seen US president Barack Obama on the road in front of generally friendly crowds. “I think the answer is no one truly knows,” says senior presidential adviser David Axelrod.
“I know there’s relentless campaigning going on. The impact of it is not clear to me.”
Another adviser, who did not want to be directly attributed, said: “We always knew how challenging healthcare was. We knew it in the campaign. It’s really compounded by trying to do it in a very tough environment. I think a lot of the stuff we’ve been doing lately is right. You’ve just got to figure out how to penetrate the message war.”
At this point in the debate, the president’s team believes several things. One is that Obama has taken a hit this summer because of healthcare and other factors. Another is that he is not continuing to fall. “There’s no doubt he took a dip but things are stable,” says Axelrod.
Better news about the economy, he argues, has helped cushion the effects of the healthcare debate. “There’s been some stabilisation.”
A third thing White House officials believe is that they need to start winning the war of words in preparation for legislative bargaining in the autumn. The president has tried to regain the offensive with townhall-style meetings in New Hampshire, Montana and, at the weekend, in Colorado.
Obama’s sessions in New Hampshire and Montana had few of the fireworks that some lawmakers have encountered but provided helpful forums to refute false claims about the legislation and rebuild public support for acting on healthcare this year.
In private, Obama has been even more intensely focused on developing a strategy for winning the healthcare debate once Congress returns next month.
He held two lengthy meetings with senior advisers last week – one devoted to legislative strategy, the other for a detailed review of the policy options that could form the basis for a compromise Bill.
Obama agreed to the request of Senate finance committee chairman Max Baucus to give the so-called Gang of Six (three Democrats and three Republicans) until September 15th to produce a bipartisan compromise. After that, he is prepared to move in other directions – although not necessarily by abandoning some of the ideas the committee has been discussing. The finance committee’s work is likely to be central, whether Republicans are on board or not.
John Podesta, who heads the Centre for American Progress think tank, says Obama must be ready to move when that mid-September deadline arrives.
“My view is either they have to have a deal or he has to say this is what we’re going to do,” he says.
“Whether that happens with Republican support or not, I think this thing can’t drift all the way through September.”
The president and his team are receiving lots of advice from allies who are frustrated that the White House has not been even more aggressive in firing back at reform critics and in attacking a strategy they believe is designed to bring down Obama’s presidency.
These allies fear Obama has lacked the passion necessary to rally public support and has been too passive in giving Republican congressional leaders a pass for some of the most outrageous attacks by opponents.
There are two moments from the presidential campaign that provide some insight into why Obama and his team are handling the debate as they are.
In autumn 2007, Obama was under considerable pressure to attack Hillary Clinton. She had a substantial lead in the polls and his campaign was treading water. What was needed, some of his nervous allies argued, was a vigorous assault on Clinton.
In September 2008, Obama faced another round of criticism from his Democratic allies. This came after John McCain had selected Sarah Palin as his vice- presidential running mate and the polls began to move in McCain’s direction. Advice flooded into the Obama campaign and the second-guessing from outside reached extraordinary levels.
In the first case, Obama resisted the harshest recommendations. He found a way to draw clear contrasts with Clinton without, as White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said at the time, “kneecapping” his rival. Obama believed that a sharp turn into negative politics of the kind advocated by some of his allies would cost him more in the long run.
In the second instance, Obama’s team made it clear they were not ready to panic, even if some of their allies were. Campaign manager David Plouffe said famously they would not be influenced by “hand-wringing and bed-wetting” from inside the Democratic family. Privately, however, Obama ordered his advisers to step up their games and he pledged to do the same.
Much the same appears to be happening now: Obama’s team is resisting advice to take a harsh line against the angriest of the protesters and towards Republican leaders who appear to be encouraging those citizens.
In large part that is because Obama does not feel comfortable adopting that posture. But he is reportedly frustrated that his message has not broken through. He is using his August road show to recalibrate – something he has often done in the past when he is struggling with his message.
“The passion in Washington for polling and this notion that every day is election day is not one we share,” says Axelrod. “That is exactly the psychology that has made it impossible to deal with big challenges before. I guarantee you the president is not sitting in his office pouring over polling data . . . You asked what his state of mind is. His state of mind is he was elected to try to solve big and stubborn issues and that’s completely where his focus is.”
That worked for Obama as a candidate. Will it work for him on an issue as complex, personal and politically charged as healthcare? – ( LA Times-Washington Postservice)