Next year will decide if Iraq fragments, says report

IRAQ:Developments over the next year could decide the fate of Iraq, where multiple conflicts continue to rage and where the government has become one state actor among several.

This is the assessment reached in a report issued yesterday by Chatham House, formerly the Royal Institute of International Affairs.

In the 12-page report, entitled Accepting Realities in Iraq, author Gareth Stansfield of Exeter University, criticises the governments of the US and UK for relying on rosy depictions of Iraq and calls for a realistic reappraisal of the situation and fresh policies designed to halt "collapse and fragmentation".

He argues that the "social fabric of Iraq has been torn apart"; Iraqi nationalism has dissolved into sectarian, tribal, and ethnic communal feelings; several civil wars and insurgencies are taking place simultaneously; al-Qaeda has established a solid presence in the north and centre; and it will take years to re-establish security.

The fundamental struggle is between Shias and Sunnis over control of the state, with the Kurds acting as "potential 'king-makers'".

Iraq's polity is under dispute with Kurds insisting on federalism and Sunnis and Shias belonging to the faction led by cleric Muqtada al-Sadr pressing for strong central authority.

Mini-conflicts are escalating: between Kurds and non-Kurds over the oil-rich Kirkuk province; Sunni groups over primacy in three governorates; Shia factions in the south; and al-Qaeda and domestic Sunni nationalist and fundamentalist groups. Finally, Sunnis are fighting US forces in the centre and north and Shias are fighting US and UK troops in the south.

Policy planners should bring "a meaningful Sunni presence back into the political process", recognise rather than target the populist Sadrist movement, and legitimise the Kurdish region.

He also recommends accepting, at least temporarily, other semi-autonomous regions such as Basra, which is ruled by Shia fundamentalists, the Sadr City district of Baghdad, which is run by the Sadrists, and the Sunni fundamentalist Islamic state of Iraq, which is "emerging as an institutionalised entity" in Anbar province.

Prof Stansfield says: "Drafting an effective petroleum law is, perhaps, the key to ensuring Iraq's survival, as it will be oil revenue that keeps the state together rather than any attempt to build a coherent national project in the short term."

He insists that "Iraqi solutions will need to be found to Iraqi problems" and urges regional powers and the US to accept such solutions rather than try to impose policies from outside the country.