These are heady days for the Government parties. With the healthiest Exchequer returns ever and what looks set to be the lowest crime rate since 1980 Christmas has come early for their election manifesto writers. Until last year crime trends, like the weather, tended to be bad news. Public panic that the problem was spiralling out of control turned crime into the most important election issue, resounding on every doorstep during last year's canvass. Then the 1997 rate fell by 10 per cent, the first significant drop in more than a decade.
If the trend for the first six months of this year continues the crime rate for 1998 will fall a further 10 per cent to just under 83,000 crimes, the lowest level since 1980.
These figures show a drop in almost all types of crime, although there has been a 2 per cent rise in the number of reported rapes, and an increase in the more infrequent crimes such as false imprisonment and explosives finds.
Unofficial figures on crimes against tourists indicate there has been a drop of 7 per cent in the first six months of this year compared to last year.
The statistics coincide with Pat Byrne's second anniversary as Garda Commissioner and the second anniversary of the murder of Veronica Guerin. Mr Byrne's role as a pro-active and high-profile Commissioner and the political reaction to the journalist's murder both resulted in the swift implementation of policing measures that had been demanded for years.
The 18 months of Operation Dochas, involving uniformed gardai on Dublin streets, also seems to have contributed. And while much of Dochas and the surveillance operations resulting in large drug seizures have been carried out on overtime, the Government has funded the cost without a whimper.
Last year the budget was £43 million, almost twice the allocation for 1997. This year's £27 million will need a further boost, and the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, has said he will look favourably on further requests to fund Garda operations.
Improved efficiency in the courts, the appointment of additional judges and a strong line on serious crime have combined to remand increased numbers to prison, without the implementation of bail laws.
Last week the Department of Justice recorded one of the highest prison populations in the history of the State.
The "multi-agency" approach involving co-operation between communities, gardai, housing authorities and health boards are also producing results, although improvements have been felt in some urban areas more than in others.
There is also anecdotal evidence from those working with drug addicts that increasing numbers are becoming involved in the types of crime, such as prostitution and dealing to feed their own habits, that may not feature as strongly in crime figures.
The increasing number of health-board drug treatment centres and GPs dispensing heroin substitutes to addicts also appear to have stabilised the situation. However, both addicts and drug workers have argued that the methadone approach treats the crime problem, rather than the drug problem.
Proposals to introduce a drug courts system have the potential to cut the drug-related crime significantly, according to the expert group chaired by Mrs Justice Susan Denham. Yesterday, in response to a report of the proposals, the Labour justice spokesman, Dr Pat Upton, called for the proper resourcing of such a system, as well as resources for preventing people from ending up in a drug court.
The Democratic Left TD, Mr Pat Rabbitte, said if treatment was to work it would require a "significant strengthening of the Probation and Welfare Service, the provision of extra treatment places, including residential places, and a need for a greater integration of services already available to provide an effective response."
Ironically, the British government, which summed up its policy as "tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime", yesterday announced a complete overhaul of its crime prevention strategy.
Instead of popular measures such as uniformed police patrols, neighbourhood watch and zero tolerance policing, the British Home Secretary, Mr Jack Straw, said money would be spent on schemes to stop children growing up to be criminals, partnership projects to tackle high-crime areas and sentences aimed at reducing re-offending.