AS I wander through my cool sequestered vale of life, muttering to myself on matters meteorological, one of the most frequent questions I am asked is: "Is there any truth in those old sayings about the weather?" Can the birds and the bees really tell us if it's going to rain? Do spawning frogs have inside information on the coming summer? And was Richard III talking through his hat when he announced that:
The weary sun bath made a golden set,
And by the bright track of his fiery ear
Gives token of a goodly day tomorrow?
Most meteorologists would agree that, in general, sayings that purport to give a long range forecast may be discarded as being total nonsense. The popular belief about St Swithin's Day, for instance, should not be taken seriously: statistics show it rarely works, and if it does, the successful forecast is a pure coincidence.
To take another example, abundant berries on the holly bush are reckoned to indicate a hard winter; the reasoning being that the bush obligingly provides a bounteous crop to sustain the birds in the expected harsh conditions. A moment's thought, however, suggests that a more plausible explanation is that the holly bush is reacting to the weather of the previous summer.
Sayings, on the other hand, that predict the short term prospects, particularly those based on the appearance of the sky, need not be discarded quite so lightly. Some, for example, have a subtle logic to them: "Rain before seven, dry by eleven" may well turn out to be the case, since most bands of frontal rain have a duration of only a few hours.
And Richard's red or golden sunset suggests that the atmosphere over the horizon to the west is clear and dry and free of cloud, usually a fair indication that rain is unlikely in the next 12 hours or so.
It is sometimes suggested that birds or animals may be more sensitive to pressure or humidity than we are, and that this may help them to anticipate the weather. Swallows, for example, are said to fly low in the sky when cold, unsettled weather is to hand, and cows are said to have a preference for lying down before it rains.
But even if this animal ultra sensitivity exists, pressure and humidity on their own are not good indicators. All in all, weather lore is a mixture of nonsense and of clever observation.
There is just enough usefulness in some of it for the sayings to have maintained a reputation through the years. Have fun with them - but don't expect too much.