Hillsborough Talks - Analysis: The scene has been set for a breakthrough writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.
Cut to the chase and there is no doubt a deal is possible from today's talks at Hillsborough. It may not happen today, but it is do-able in the very short term. All that can prevent it is republican obstinacy and/or Ulster Unionist recalcitrance.
If republicans continue to play the long game of delivering what will satisfy their own constituency and, possibly, broad nationalism as well, but knowingly don't do enough to convince unionists, then the current top gear of the peace process will quickly slip back to first gear.
Equally, if Sinn Féin and the IRA do make that grand gesture, and if it is repudiated by Mr David Trimble, or so grudgingly accepted that it just encourages the divisions in his party, then the process will sputter to the back of the grid.
That said there are still more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic. As the governments watched anxiously over the weekend, senior Sinn Féin and Ulster Unionist politicians - the people on whom the chief responsibility for making this work lies - kept their eyes on the road ahead.
There are still very difficult issues to be resolved in today's talks chaired by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, but it was apparent from the careful studied weekend comments of Mr Martin McGuinness and Mr Trimble that they want this to succeed. Mr Trimble was careful not to close any doors at his Ulster Unionist Council annual meeting on Saturday.
He spelt out what he requires from republicans to go back into government with Sinn Féin, but apart from one important issue, sanctions, his stance generally accords with what the two governments require and what republicans should be able to provide. Mr Trimble has a dangerous, counterproductive tendency when speaking to Sinn Féin to use language that infuriates the republican rank and file and makes it difficult for Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness to go forward with radical moves.
It was clear that the tick- tacking between Dublin, London, Provisional republicans and Ulster Unionists is of a high order. Make your point but tread carefully, appeared to be the instruction to which the UUP leader was operating.
On Saturday, he was clear in his demands - an end to IRA activity, visible, verified decommissioning and graduated sanctions against Sinn Féin should the IRA fail to live up to commitments - but at least he didn't gratuitously insult anyone, at least not publicly.
In fact, he reasonably suggested that it made sense for the IRA to carry out visible, possibly videoed, decommissioning in front of independent witnesses. Why have the internal republican pain of decommissioning without the external gain of convincing unionists, their "target audience", that it was a genuine act? Sounded perfectly sensible.
Sinn Féin will fiercely resist his call for sanctions, including the exclusion of Sinn Féin from the Executive, if the IRA in any way goes back on pledges. Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness were very firm on this issue.
Finding middle ground here is one of the big tests today.
Mr Trimble avoided the "disbandment" word but mimicking Mr Adams his bottom line was that the IRA has to "go away, you know".
Equally, he probably wishes Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and Mr David Burnside would do likewise. On Saturday they said they had no such intention.
Of the two, Mr Burnside is adopting the harder line: insisting there must be no truck with republicans, in any circumstances, because they couldn't be trusted. Disarmament and disbandment was Mr Donaldson's demand. If a reasonable deal emerges from the discussions, Mr Trimble has indicated he will run with it.
That will pose serious questions for Mr Donaldson. If middle unionism believes Mr Trimble, then Mr Donaldson is faced with holding with the implacable Donaldson-Burnside combination, and further splitting the party, or breaking that axis and easing his way back into the mainstream fold of Ulster Unionism.
It was obvious on Saturday that Ulster Unionists have concerns over Mr Burnside's rigidity. Mr Donaldson, who comes across as a more amenable figure, was returned as one of the party's four vice- presidents but Mr Burnside failed to oust Trimble supporter Mr Ken Maginnis from one of those posts. So, there is potential here for Mr Trimble to divide and conquer, and keep the Yes wing in the ascendant.
East Antrim Ulster Unionist MP, Mr Roy Beggs, came up with a scary line on Saturday. What was required from the IRA was a grand act that would "sell itself" to Ulster Unionists, he said. Considering all the criticism Mr Trimble has received for failing to sell the Belfast Agreement, it sounded rather inappropriate.
Yet, we know what Mr Beggs meant. Mr Adams has often bemoaned Mr Trimble's style of leadership but he must realise that if what the IRA delivers falls short, then sceptical Ulster Unionists will turn away in disillusionment and bitterness.
In short, Ulster Unionists want verifiable commitments that the IRA war is over. More pressingly they want that pledge front-loaded with one or two speedy and major acts of decommissioning. They want to see the Kalashnikovs and Semtex being rendered useless.
In return Sinn Féin will get demilitarisation, an effective amnesty for IRA fugitives, and a commitment to devolve responsibility for criminal justice and policing to the Northern Executive. The British will suspend legislation entitling it to unilaterally suspend the Executive and Assembly at the whim of Mr Trimble, there will be money for the Irish language, and other commitments on equality and human rights. Sinn Féin will be expected to join the Policing Board. Those exiled by paramilitaries must be allowed home. There will be a mother of a battle over sanctions on Sinn Féin.
And that is how today, and perhaps tomorrow will proceed. Will the deed be done? It should be. If it isn't, there will also be the mother of a blame game.
