Kenny and Cameron travel to North for crucial talks

The Taoiseach and British prime minister will arrive in Belfast for political negotiations on Thursday, but no one in the North is holding their breath about an impending breakthrough.

These negotiations are about keeping the powersharing structures intact for the next 18 months so the politicians can get beyond next May's British general election and the Northern Assembly elections 12 months later.

That is hardly a demonstration of enormous ambition but it might be as good as it gets for Enda Kenny and David Cameron.

By May or June 2016, be sure that the old dreary problems of parades and flags will still be with us, as will peace walls and sectarianism and whatever other unexpected political crises that come along. But if the Northern Executive and Assembly are functioning at that stage, it will be an achievement considering the current political torpor.

There is some optimism that a limited agreement can be achieved before Christmas, but it must also be remembered that this time last year there were similar hopes that the talks chaired by former US diplomat Richard Haass would lead to a deal on the past, parades and flags.

However, they were dashed when unionist politicians rejected what seemed a reasonable compromise on these most contentious issues. The politicians and people know that can happen again.

One of the reasons there is cautious anticipation of agreement is that Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness appear to be in deal-making mode. And deal-making rests with them.

The big issue is finance. In particular Sinn Féin’s, but also the SDLP’s. Opposition to welfare change threatens the future of the Executive and Assembly. If the DUP and Sinn Féin can’t circumvent this issue then Stormont could collapse.

Deep cuts

Up to 2019 the Northern Executive will be hit by extreme budget cuts of £1.5 billion (€1.9 billion). If there is no agreement on welfare reform the Executive will face penalties of up to £1 billion over the next five years. It is generally agreed that financially that is unsustainable.

All departments are threatening significant cuts in jobs and services with Ulster Unionist Minister Regional Development Danny Kennedy offering the best metaphor of the situation by saying he can no longer replace street lighting – the lights literally are going out.

Therefore Cameron, with some assistance from Kenny, and possibly also from former US senator Gary Hart – who has a watching brief on these negotiations – must bring a financial package that could alter the welfare reform proposals or, perhaps more likely, soften the effect of welfare overhaul. The European Union also may be encouraged to lend a hand.

We should soon get a glimpse of the colour of the pounds, euro and, possibly, dollars on offer. Another incentive is that a deal would lead to the Executive getting corporation tax-setting powers which, the politicians say, could lead to 50,000 jobs.

If there is a reasonable pot of money provided then – with the usual qualifications and complaints – the door could be opened for movement on more political matters such as the past and reducing the size and cost of Stormont.

Haass has already delivered a means of addressing the past through proposals such as a historical investigations unit to inquire into Troubles-related killings and a separate independent commission for information retrieval.

The DUP and UUP opposed the overall Haass document but it could be repackaged to save unionist blushes.

There could also can be agreement on reducing the size of the Executive and Assembly.

In terms of the big issues thereafter we are into zero-sum politics over flags and parades where there just is not the necessary goodwill to strike a real deal, notwithstanding that it is these community relations-type problems that are holding back Northern Ireland.

But right now keeping the Stormont show on the road is the crucial objective. What has been achieved must not be taken for granted. Pragmatism and political self-interest could be enough to deliver for the moment even though longer term the public needs renewed inspiration and braver goals.