Analysis: Mike Nesbitt raises stakes by withdrawing UUP Minister

There's a Vladimir Putin style of macho competitive politics sometimes played within unionism. Which means that Peter Robinson won't want to be seen to be dancing to the tune of Ulster Unionist Party leader Mike Nesbitt.

Yet Nesbitt, by his decision to flex his muscles and withdraw the UUP's single Minister (Danny Kennedy) from the Northern Ireland Executive, may have begun the unravelling of this Stormont powersharing administration. It will take all of Robinson's strategic nous if there is any hope of safeguarding the institutions.

The name of David Trimble featured prominently yesterday at Stormont, where Nesbitt, flanked by his Assembly members, his MEP and his two MPs, announced the decision. It must still be endorsed by the party's ruling 100-member executive on Saturday, but that is a given.

It was recalled how, through the late 1990s and early 2000s, Robinson, Ian Paisley and internal dissenters within the UUP (many of them now in the DUP) brought down Trimble, then the Ulster Unionist leader, whom they relentlessly characterised as failing to stand up to Sinn Féin and the IRA.

It was noted how ironic it would be if Robinson decided to hang on in the Executive with Sinn Féin after the PSNI Chief Constable adjudicated that the IRA still exists, that it has a command structure, and that some of its members were involved in the killing of Kevin McGuigan.

George Hamilton, the chief constable, accepted the peaceful bona fides of Sinn Féin and said there was no evidence that the IRA leadership sanctioned the killing of the ex-IRA man. But that won't cut any ice with those Ulster Unionists and others, such as Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister, now enjoying the DUP leader's discomfiture.

Blind eye

Allister succinctly described the dilemma, and the questions that the DUP and Robinson will now face: “Are they going to be the only unionist party, for the sake of office, turning a blind eye to murder?”

Nesbitt obviously knows he is engaging in high-wire politics. London and Dublin had attempted to lower the temperature (although Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald did feel prompted to have a dig at Sinn Féin on Tuesday) in the hope that a crisis could be averted. But Nesbitt, by his move, undoubtedly has brought the Executive and Assembly closer to collapse.

And if the Executive and Assembly do tumble, how long will it take to build them up again? Assembly elections should follow but, equally, Northern Secretary Theresa Villiers could rule that there is little point in holding elections to an administration that can't function.

Villiers could opt for suspension and a return to direct rule – temporarily, she would hope. At least that would allow the British government to deal with the welfare deadlock, though surely in a way much more disadvantageous to the people of Northern Ireland than if the matter were resolved by the Executive.

However, all that’s for later. This crisis now must take its course.

As mentioned here previously, Nesbitt can cite the credibility factor as justification for walking out of the Executive. His choice was between believing Hamilton, who said the IRA still existed and some of its members had killed McGuigan, or believing Gerry Adams, who insisted the IRA has gone away and was not involved in the killing.

It was not difficult to see which way Nesbitt would plump.

Alliance challenge

There will be much recrimination in the days ahead. The Alliance party, which has two Ministers, including the Justice portfolio held by leader

David Ford

, accused Nesbitt and the UUP of “political opportunism”.

Former UUP leader Tom Elliott responded by more or less challenging Alliance to also withdraw its Ministers from the Executive.

Gerry Adams, who is still on holiday (as is Martin McGuinness), made the same electioneering charge in a blog. Of Sinn Féin’s political opponents, he wrote: “If this descends into a political crisis it is a direct result of their stupidity and party political opportunism.

“The war is over and the IRA is gone and is not coming back,” and “there is nothing more Sinn Féin can do,” he added.

A senior Ulster Unionist, again citing the chief constable, responded: “Gerry Adams wants us to believe black is white.”

Robinson, who is on holiday as well, has so far bided his time to see what the PSNI comes up with in terms of the McGuigan murder investigation and to hear more detail from Hamilton about the existence of the IRA.

That remains the case. Under the d’Hondt system of allocating ministries, the DUP is in line to take the UUP department. Again, though, the party is not rushing into any decision to assume the regional development portfolio.

Robinson will think long and hard about his next move. As a political strategist, he may also come up with his own penalty proposals, such as seeking Sinn Féin’s expulsion, temporary or otherwise, from the Executive.

Indeed, deputy leader Nigel Dodds said as much yesterday evening.

The DUP is to shortly meet British prime minister David Cameron, to determine if he can assist in finding a rabbit to pluck out of a hat.

On the face of it, the situation appears close to hopeless. Nonetheless, senior DUP people indicated there was a slight chance the situation could be saved.

This is likely to involve the British and Irish governments convening comprehensive talks next month. And, according to senior DUP people, it must involve Gerry Adams shifting from his current position of “denial about the IRA”.