COP21: Research claims CO2 emissions have stalled

Global carbon dioxide emissions have stalled for the second year in a row despite economic growth, according to new research.

The findings of a study conducted by leading climate scientists was presented at the COP21 climate change summit in Paris yesterday. It showed global carbon emissions may fall slightly in 2015. This comes after the yearly increases in emissions slowed to almost a standstill in 2014.

The research was carried out by the University of East Anglia and the Global Carbon Project, using data from research institutes worldwide.

Lead researcher Prof Corinne Le Quere said the figures for the last two years contrasted with the growth trajectory since 2000 when emission rose by 2-3 per cent each year.

“What we are now seeing is that emissions appear to have stalled and they could even decline in 2015,” she said.

However, she added, “It is unlikely that emissions have peaked for good. This is because energy needs for growing economies still rely primarily on coal, and emissions decreases in some industrial countries are still modest at best . . . There is still a long way to near zero emissions.”

High-level negotiations

The report was published on the first day of the crucial high-level negotiations at Le Bourget aimed at reaching a global accord that will offer a robust response to climate change.

The negotiations involve government ministers from over 190 countries going through a 48-page text where all the key issues remain outstanding.

Some commentators said the research showed how economic activity could increase without emissions growing. However, the decrease was attributed mainly to China using less coal in recent years.

Responding to the findings, Martin Kaiser of Greenpeace said, “We can’t celebrate yet. Two years of apparently stable emissions do not make a trend. With the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere already, there is no room for complacency.”

Robust agreement

Opening the high-level segment of the talks, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon reminded ministers of the pledges made by over 150 world leaders last week that they would give full support for a robust agreement.

“Never before have so many heads of state and government gathered in one place at one time with one common purpose,” he said.

Attending the talks yesterday, Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly warned against unrealistic expectations.

He said politically it would be very difficult to achieve a binding agreement to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, although the conference was heading towards the 2 degree target.

He added he would be in a position to bring proposals for significantly increased Irish contributions to the Green Climate Fund to Cabinet. The Government has been criticised for not committing more than €2 million to this fund.

Also attending was Minister for Communications and Energy Alex White who said a significant proportion of increased electricity demand in Dublin in future would be taken by data centres being operated by multinational technology companies.