JUST three months ago in late February, following the announcement of the termination of the IRA ceasefire, the last Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll contained unmistakable messages from a very apprehensive electorate for all the main figures in the Northern Ireland situation.
At that juncture, large majorities were asking that individual agendas be tapered down and that these should be replaced by compromise from all participants. The people in the Republic set the scene, having put down an innovative marker, in that a majority no longer saw a United Ireland as the single preferred solution. This concession, in the interests of peace, clearly indicated a high expectation of some degree of modification, or compromise, on the part of all the main figures.
During the final six weeks of the recent election campaign, while some statements could be described as conciliatory, the overall impression was one of bluster and challenge. The wishes of the electorate, as reflected in the February opinion poll in the Republic, were largely ignored, and the people of Northern Ireland turned out and voted against a background of disagreement and deadlock on many issues relating to the proposed talks.
This further survey, which was conducted at a very crucial stage in the development process - on Tuesday last, just midway between the election and the talks - confirms many of the findings of the February project.
At that stage, two-thirds of the electorate considered that John Major's proposal for an election in Northern Ireland would either be unhelpful or would make little difference either way. Today, half hold the view that it has either had no effect on the peace process or has actually damaged it.
This outcome parallels to quite an extent the situation in February, when the British government was perceived to be the main party responsible for the breaking down of the peace process. Today, John Major's endeavours have received a very mixed reaction, with 46 per cent believing that he is not doing all he can to find a solution to the problem and 36 per cent favourably disposed to him on the issue.
On the same criterion, both John Hume and John Bruton have made a very impressive impact, with favourable ratings of 81 per cent and 72 per cent respectively, while Ian Paisley and David Trimble have negative ratings of 81 per cent and 50 per cent.
One of the most significant conclusions from this survey is that those who favour a united Ireland as the preferred solution no longer represent a majority, as had been the case in all previous research on Northern Ireland before the February opinion poll.
As recently as 1991, more than four in every five people in the Republic aspired to a united Ireland. Today, the figure remains at approximately one in three, confirming the February situation. To complement this, the extent to which we would accept a Northern Ireland linked to both the UK and the Republic remains solid, and confirms an unmistakable change in public opinion on the issue.
A further informative area relates to public reaction to preconditions for Sinn Fein's participation in the proposed talks, and again the outcome of the February survey has been confirmed, in that attitudes have not altered significantly in the meantime. The primary expectation - held by two electors in every five - is that the IRA must resume its ceasefire as a precondition to participation, while one in five feels the IRA should gradually decommission weapons as the talks progress.
The only noticeable change in this context since February - which implies that some electors are beginning to become impatient - is that support for the IRA decommissioning of all weapons before the start of talks has increased from 1O per cent to 17 per cent over the past three months.
The final question on Northern Ireland related to perception of the extent to which the Government is reflecting the nationalist viewpoint. While at first glance, opinions would appear to be mixed on this issue - with 45 per cent saying that nationalist opinion is being adequately reflected and 40 per cent feeling that it is not being presented strongly enough - a closer inspection of the data provides a more meaningful interpretation. Some 50 per cent of those who are critical in this respect are Fianna Fail supporters, while favourable reaction is, not surprisingly, most widely held by those of Fine Gael and Labour.
To conclude, it will be recalled that while traditionally Northern Ireland has not emerged as a relevant issue in general elections in this jurisdiction in the past, it would be very unwise for any politician who is currently involved to assume that this will not be a relevant factor in the election campaign next year.
Since the announcement of the IRA ceasefire in August 1994, the Irish people have had a very real opportunity of experiencing what peace means, with its highly advantageous consequences in the economic, social and political areas.
The potentially disastrous effects - both psychological and otherwise - of the termination of the ceasefire in February are clearly evident within the ranks of an apprehensive and concerned electorate in both today's and last February's opinion polls. Finally, the recent build-up to both the Northern Ireland elections and talks has raised expectation to a degree that any outcome other than the restoration of peace will be construed as failure by those who eventually will have the final say - the people.