The prospects for a Jeffrey Donaldson/Sir Reg Empey "dream ticket" alternative to Mr David Trimble's leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party will turn on face-to-face talks between the two men.
While key players remained tight-lipped last night, usually reliable sources indicated that the critical discussion could take place within the next 24 hours - while others insisted there was no certainty Mr Donaldson and Sir Reg would meet formally before Saturday's meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council.
Critics are set to claim "an irrecoverable loss of authority" by the existing leadership should Mr Trimble lose Saturday's vote on his move to discipline Mr Donaldson and fellow MPs, the Rev Martin Smyth and Mr David Burnside, following their decision to resign the party whip.
The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, will be hoping to boost Mr Trimble ahead of Saturday's meeting with today's announcement of the appointment of the international Independent Monitoring Commission to monitor paramilitary ceasefires and determine "sanctions" against any party deemed in breach of its commitment to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.
In advance of Mr Blair's expected confirmation of the four nominees to the monitoring body - one each from Britain, Northern Ireland, the Republic and the United States - Mr Trimble insists the important thing for unionists to recognise is that the final authority under the controversial new arrangements would rest with the British Secretary of State.
However, with unionist and Conservative critics awaiting detailed scrutiny of the draft British legislation due before parliament next week - and amid evidence of ongoing London/Dublin negotiation over fine detail - it seems unlikely that the issue will be a major influence on the outcome of this Saturday's UUC meeting.
Instead the news that Mr Donaldson and Sir Reg - formerly a Stormont minister and key ally of Mr Trimble - are expected to meet soon to explore a possible rapprochement between pro-Agreement unionists and the party's "soft No" faction suggests that the ongoing speculation about Mr Trimble's survival will overshadow and survive Saturday's vote on the disciplinary issue.
Having previously dismissed any possibility of an Empey/Donaldson "dream ticket" succession, Mr Trimble has this week acknowledged that discussions about the possibility have entered a new and more serious phase.
It is understood Mr Trimble raised the issue indirectly during what was described as a "friendly" meeting with Sir Reg yesterday. According to one account, Mr Trimble said any leadership deal involving Mr Donaldson would "return unionism to the Stone Age". But unionists promoting a Donaldson/Empey pact insist the present stalemate in the party cannot continue.
Sources confirmed last night that "exploratory talks" involving two former Assembly members, one Westminster MP and one party officer had concluded and that "it is now for the two men to decide if they have the policy basis on which to build a greater consensus for devolution within the party".
The Monitoring Commission is to include Lord Alderdice, speaker in the Assembly, and Mr Joe Brosnan, former senior civil servant in Dublin. The third member will be Mr John Grieve, formerly the senior anti-terrorism expert in the Metropolitan Police in London. There was speculation that the fourth will be a former senior officer in the US intelligence services.