THE British Prime Minister, Mr Major, paid tribute to the Conservative MP, Mr Barry Porter, who died yesterday following a short illness, describing him as a man with a "generous heart and good humour." However, with Mr Porter's death, which reduces the government's overall majority in the Commons to just one, and the possibility of a by election in his constituency, the government's reliance upon the unionist parties to smooth its way to the next general election has been increased.
According to a survey of voting patterns in Mr Porter's Wirral South constituency during council elections in May, although the Conservatives held the seat with a majority of 8,183 the Labour Party polled more votes in the five composite wards of the constituency. While the council elections did not affect the Conservative numbers in the Commons the net swing of voters since the general election of 1992 in Wirral South is 8.5 per cent to the Labour Party.
If a by election is held for Mr Porter's seat, and it is not yet certain that this will happen since the government may decide to leave the seat vacant until the general election some time in the next six months, the Conservatives will face a tough battle with Labour. A spokeswoman for the Conservatives said last night that it was "tar too early" to offer any guidance on the possibility of a by election being held.
But if it is held, calculating the probability of a Conservative defeat or success is difficult. Much depends on the outcome of a by election being fought in the vacant Labour constituency of Barnsley East. Defeat for the Conservatives in Wirral South would mean an overall minority in the Commons of one, but only in the event of a Labour win in Barnsley East.
However, if the Tories retain Mr Porter's seat in the face of a strong Labour threat it would be their first by election victory for more than seven years and serve as a rallying call for many Conservative MPs in marginal seats.
In recent months the government has had measured success in securing the support of the unionists in the Commons. They have not supported Conservative proposals to curtail the beef crisis, preferring a separate Northern Ireland package, but the unionists have supported the government over its plans to introduce a limited ban on the use of handguns.
Mr Porter was remembered by his parliamentary colleagues last night as a courageous and principled man with a deep interest in Northern Ireland affairs." He was an outspoken, right wing Conservative, and once remonstrated with the former Prime Minister, now Baroness Thatcher for holding on to power for too long.