AS the saying goes: "No stairway leads to heaven." True. But market commentators appear to have an obsession with the notion of an imminent downturn. The prospect of a downturn seems unlikely - at least in the medium term - for a number of reasons.

First, the economy does, indeed, seem to be a Celtic tiger and there seems almost to be an embarrassment of good news about. The oracles in Europe have recently suggested Ireland will have three times the European average growth rate till at least the end of the decade.

At home, even the usual complaining lobbies admit to enjoying a degree of prosperity and have ceased keening at least for the time being (the farming lobby excluded).

Second, interest rates for more than three years have been at or below 6 per cent, matched by low inflationary pressure. Indeed, there seems to be little prospect of an early rise in rates, due to the growing confidence that EMU will happen and that we will be in the first landing party on that uncertain voyage.

Thus, with German rates (with whom we will be converging) at 3.25 per cent, the markets, rather than the Central Bank, will call the tune.

One gets the feeling that, although there is no empirical evidence of a correlation between house prices and inflation, the Central Bank would like to cool the house market with a rate rise - but alas, these powers are gone, perhaps forever. Perhaps all that is left to the Governor of the Central Bank is to call the building societies in for a "ball of malt" and a chat.

Third, the inward flow of good projects such as tele-marketing operations, software and most of all, IFSC companies, has brought a much wider spinoff to the market than the immediate jobs they create and the immediate space they taken up. The effect they have in creating demand for goods and services has led to an increase demand in all the occupation markets, and this seems likely to increase rather than taper off.

Looking across Europe, Ireland is perhaps the top performer in terms of relative space take-up, reduction in overhang and rental growth. This is important when one considers that there will be a further boost when the European economies start to come out of the present slow period they are suffering.

The market is very liquid at present. Turnover of properties in each of the last three years has been close to £300 million per annum. As has been said before, there is no inherent liquidity in property, simply wrong pricing. As by definition, anything with a positive cash flow must be saleable, it is simply a matter of pricing.

Institutional holdings of property is still low by historic standards. In the last three years, property as a percentage of assets in the pension funds has been 4.8 per cent in 1993; 5.6 per cent in 1994; and 6.3 per cent in 1995. The figures for 1996 are not yet available, butt these will be up again, although still low. It should be noted, hoverer, that some funds here are managed from the UK and these, in some cases, have a zero holding in property, thus bringing down the average figure.

Even allowing for this, the percentage held in real estate is still small. It was felt at one stage that with property becoming such a small part of overall portfolios, it might be dropped altogether as an asset category. However, the performance over the last three years has given cause for thought and most funds now seem anxious to increase their weighting, in some cases, significantly.

This buying pressure will perhaps see yields edge downwards as rental increases manifest themselves.

Finally, a major structural change has taken place in the market with the emergence of significant private investors, who now account for a sizeable proportion of the market, or at least of recent transactions. In his personal and corporate guise, this investor is an important development in the market which was dominated heretofore by one class of investor - the large institutions.

The obvious structural disadvantage of this phenomenon was that inevitably such investors will wish to buy or sell at the same time in any given cycle, thus tending to accentuate the troughs and peaks. The arrival in strength of different classes of investors will make for a much more liquid market to the benefit of all.

I suppose there must be the inevitable "but" and indeed there is if EMU were to come off the rails badly, there would be an immediate threat to Irish interest rates and this would be bound to reverberate through all the markets. At present, this seems like a worry which the markets are choosing not to recognise as real.

With overall property returns headed for 20 per cent for the ear, the real estate fraternity is looking forward to the round of Christmas parties this year.