Ireland

Ireland weather: why is it so mild at the moment?

High pressure is causing very mild winds from the south and southwest, making it feel more like summer than autumn

The average temperature for this time of year is between 7 and 11 degrees. Photograph: Bryan O'Brien/The Irish Times
The average temperature for this time of year is between 7 and 11 degrees. Photograph: Bryan O'Brien/The Irish Times
Ronan McGreevy's picture
Ronan McGreevy
Thu Nov 07 2024 - 18:57

On Wednesday afternoon the temperature at Met Éireann stations at the Phoenix Park in Dublin and at Finner Camp in Co Donegal reached 19.1 degrees.

It is not the record for November; that was 20.1 degrees recorded on November 1st, 2015 in Co Kerry, but it is close enough.

The extraordinarily mild conditions are being caused by the positioning of high pressure over Ireland which is feeding in mild air from the south. The average temperature for this time of year is between 7 and 11 degrees.

On Wednesday, 11 Met Éireann stations recorded their highest November temperatures since records began. The station in Claremorris, Co Mayo which goes back 81 years, peaked at a temperature of 18.2 degrees, breaking the record by 2 degrees.

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An unofficial weather station in South Dublin recorded a temperature of 20.6 degrees on Wednesday afternoon, but it is not recognised by Met Éireann.

Ireland has been in a long spell of very mild autumn weather with temperatures in October well above the average for the month, although September was slightly cooler than normal.

The high pressure will not last with much fresher weather coming next week, said Met Éireann forecaster Rebecca Cantwell.

“It is unusual to have high pressure in November. It is the position of it that is unusual,” she said.

More normal weather will return early next week.

“We are going to see fronts moving in, the winds are going to pick up and it is going to enable more mixing.

“The high pressure is going to be more central for us so we are going to be in a north to northwesterly airflow – it will be a lot cooler.”

Ms Cantwell said the high temperatures may be down to natural variability rather than climate change as it is difficult to pin any one weather event on climate change.

The mild autumn we are having, for example, followed on from the coldest summer in nine years.

The forecast for the coming days is for high pressure to remain close by with little in the way of rain, but it will be notably cooler from Sunday and into the early days of next week.

Climate scientists gathering in Azerbaijan for COP29 will say they are “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the world’s warmest year on record.

Global average temperatures across the year are on track to end up more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which would make 2024 the first calendar year to breach this symbolic mark.