Knock-on effects from the war in Ukraine are among a variety of factors thought to be driving up the numbers of asylum seekers arriving in Ireland, new research has found.
While a relatively small number of Ukrainian nationals have applied for international protection, a study by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) found that causes of the overall spike were varied and included the effects of the conflict on other countries.
In the first half of 2022, the number of international protection applications in Ireland rose to 6,494 from 2,235 in the same period of 2019, the most recent year not affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. That represents an increase of 191 per cent.
According to Keire Murphy, one of the report’s authors, the recent increase marked “a significant change from previous years. While much of the EU has seen such figures before, Ireland has long been an outlier with a low number of applications.”
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No single factor has been identified as a principal driver, but the research, published on Thursday, attributed the rise to a number of likely causes.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022 has caused significant displacement, and while most of those displaced from Ukraine are covered under the Temporary Protection Directive (and are therefore not counted in application figures), the knock-on effects of the war on neighbouring countries and on socio-economic conditions in many other countries may be contributing to the increase in Ireland,” it noted.
Ukrainians filed 300 applications, a rise of 9,900 per cent on the three applications in the comparable 2019 period.
The five most common countries of origin were Georgia, Somalia, Algeria, Zimbabwe and Nigeria, which together accounted for 60 per cent of the 2022 applications to June.
There have been similar increases across the EU. While Ireland was among a small number of member states to experience a continuous rise in applications throughout the first six months of 2022, data available to September indicates a decline.
The research was funded by the Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth, which has come under recent pressure from communities angered by a lack of consultation on plans to accommodate asylum seekers.
“The report was commissioned to try and understand the substantial increase in arrivals of International Protection applicants to Ireland over the last 10 months and to assess if this trend will continue long-term,” said Minister Roderic O’Gorman.
“Further research is required to understand fully the Irish context and my department is currently working to commission [it].”
The ESRI identified other factors, including the possibility Ireland is experiencing a form of “catch-up migration” caused by Covid-19 travel restrictions.
More typical reasons are also taken into account, including conditions and conflict in countries of origin – this is the case in some of the most common, such as Somalia, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Nigeria and Georgia, from where applications have been increasing across Europe.
Sometimes there is movement of refugees from other EU member states to Ireland for a variety of reasons difficult to quantify but which could include reuniting with family.
Whatever the reasons for the increased flow, policy changes in a post-Brexit UK are unlikely to be among them, according to the ESRI. The UK, too, has seen rising numbers but from different countries.
Conditions in Ireland are also considered to be a pull factor – current labour market shortages; a “social network effect” emerging from 30 years of immigration; and “a generally positive perception of Ireland”.
However, the research concluded it “was highly unlikely that specific integration or reception policies in Ireland were influencing applications”.
