1. Imperfect deal is better than no deal
There were cheers among sleep-deprived negotiators but that was probably from relief that something tangible somehow managed to get over the line even though talks had seemed stuck through much of the weekend, with threats of walkouts by developing countries.
Wealthy countries agreed at the UN climate talks to triple their financial supports to $300 (€288 million) billion a year for vulnerable developing nations after a last-minute deal was reached in Baku early on Sunday.
Delegates from 196 countries struggled to reach a consensus on a new global climate finance goal – a headline figure on supports for developing countries – and what needs to be done about weaning the world off fossil fuels.
Cash on the table was upped to $300 billion a year, with a commitment to reach $1.3 trillion, but with little detail. A commitment on transitioning away from fossil fuels agreed last year was retained without building on that ambition.
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Given what’s happening to the world in terms of a worsening climate, and terrible uncertainty geopolitically, a “no deal in Baku” would have sent all the wrong signals.
2. Trump factor is big negative
Though Donald Trump has yet to take office, the climate hoaxer’s victory in the US presidential election soured the mood at Cop29 from the very start. He has vowed to remove the US from global climate efforts and has appointed another climate sceptic as his energy secretary – while he is set to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement from day one.
His election meant the US could offer little at Cop29, despite being the world’s biggest historical polluter and most responsible for climate change. This undoubtedly curtailed ambitions on the finance target, with the world’s biggest economy unlikely to contribute. That means others will inevitably have to pay more to support vulnerable countries.
3. Petrostate hosts: not a good idea
“It’s been another shady, oil-stained Cop,” declared leading climate scientist Friederike Otto – a view that would be echoed by many negotiators, diplomats and civil society groups.
Many were shocked by the president of host country Azerbaijan telling the summit oil and gas were “a gift from God”.
The Azeri presidency, in leading negotiations, avoided mentioning fossil fuels at all costs. It was caught trying to make oil-deals on the side and more than 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists were welcomed to Baku.
It is easy to forget “there are many lives and livelihoods at stake, and people other than those bought by oil are fighting for real progress, and for all of us”, Otto added. She hoped that at Cop30 in Brazil next year those voices will get amplified more and that urgently needed acceleration of the transition away from fossil fuels can happen for a safer, more equal world.
4. Blunted climate activism is all too evident
Having Cops in Big Oil states has also blunted climate activism as protests are curtailed, if not banned. Invariably, activists are constrained in what they can say and often detained to avoid negative publicity; not just at Cops but in advance of talks taking place. All-important voices, especially from young people, are being silenced like never before.
5. Saudi Arabia plays true to form
The one country repeatedly criticised for lack of commitment to accelerated climate action was Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers.
A 2023 report from the Climate Social Science Network concluded: “One nation has had an outsize role in undermining progress at global climate negotiations, year after year: Saudi Arabia. The fossil fuel giant has a 30-year record of obstruction and delay, protecting its national oil and gas sector and seeking to ensure UN climate talks achieve as little as possible, as slowly as possible.”
“Riyadh’s envoys are among the most active across all tracks of UN climate talks, frequently pushing back on efforts to curb fossil fuels”, it found. “Despite increased temperatures across Saudi Arabia and falling groundwater supplies, Riyadh has shown little sign of shifting strategy.”
True to form this year, they attempted a manoeuvre that Trump would have been proud of; trying to row back on an international agreement it had supported to transition away from fossil fuels reached last year at Cop28.
6. Same implementation problems everywhere
Rich and middle-income countries are struggling to scale up the big-impact solution; deploying renewables to replace polluting fossil fuels. It’s not just Ireland.
That means problems with planning, consent, connection, timely completion of critical infrastructure and lack of a robust power grid to share power efficiently.
This race to net-zero emissions is also hampered by logistical roadblocks, ie escalating demand for electricity from a combination of modern data-consuming lifestyles, the voracious power needs of data centres and mega demands of artificial intelligence. That is why reducing demand (somehow) and increasing energy efficiency are critical to the global transition to sustainable living.
7. Facing up to real costs
Conversations have become more realistic on what decarbonisation will cost, with growing realisation it also represents an economic opportunity, while helping to bring the planet to a safer place.
Trillions are required for vulnerable countries, not the meagre billions promised up to now – and delivered late. There must be unambiguous detail on what type of funds are being deployed and who is to pay them. So many poor countries are debt-laden. There should be grants rather than loans, and dedicated funding for adaptation actions and low-interest finance.
We spend $7 trillion globally on inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Better used, that money could go a long way in tipping the balance in the right direction.
8. Aviation levies here we come
There is a new pragmatism among hard-pressed economies in the Global North still reeling from Covid-19 and a painful energy crisis. They agree they must cough up more for countries struggling in the Global South. All this meant this year they have become much more willing to consider new sources of money that may emerge as “global solidarity levies”.
Possibilities include levies on aviation, shipping, financial transactions, cryptocurrency, plastics and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. A co-ordinated minimum 2 per cent tax on billionaires, recently discussed at the G20 summit, could yield $200-250 billion, fostering a fairer global tax landscape.
The push for their introduction is gathering momentum. Impact assessments and consultations will be conducted before concrete policy proposals are presented by the IMF and World Bank in April 2025.
9. Cop process needs radical reform
Despite years of climate agreements, most notably the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015, the key indicators of climate change continue to sound alarm bells.
Countries have been hit by increasingly extreme weather, indicating the pace of progress hasn’t been fast enough to prevent a climate breakdown. This year is on track to be the warmest ever on record, with evidence of climate impacts spiralling faster than expected.
That backdrop and the way climate Cops are run and reach decisions have heightened concerns that the UN process is no longer fit for purpose. It is a cornerstone of global climate governance but needs overhaul so it can retain its relevance in a rapidly changing climate crisis.
[ Sally Rooney: When are we going to have the courage to stop the climate crisis?Opens in new window ]
10. All too slow – and not enough
Human actions since the Industrial Revolution, primarily burning of fossil fuels, have caused greenhouse gases to rapidly rise in the atmosphere to record levels. As carbon dioxide, methane and other gases increase, they act as a blanket, trapping heat and warming the planet to unprecedented levels in human history.
In response, Earth’s air and ocean temperatures warm. This warming affects the water cycle, shifts weather patterns and melts land ice – all impacts that can make extreme weather worse.
Having experienced horrendous extreme weather events over the past year, hundreds of millions of people across the planet sense their normal climate is changing, perhaps never to return to the stability of the past.
In the face of that threat, and what the science is saying, one can only conclude the global response of governments and policymakers – Ireland included – is inadequate and far too slow in delivering known solutions – and Cop29 is yet another indication of that collective failure.
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