Urgent implementation of “all climate plans and policies, plus further new measures” will be needed for Ireland to meet a legally-binding 51 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
In its latest projections on greenhouse gas emissions up to 2040, the EPA data indicate that Ireland will find it difficult to meet its carbon budgets over the next decade due to “a significant gap” between them and projected emissions, which is widest in the agriculture and transport sectors.
Total greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to have increased by 6 per cent last year, the EPA forecasts, but the five-yearly carbon budget up to 2025 adopted by the Oireachtas requires emissions to reduce by 4.8 per cent on average each year. The budget up to 2030 requires an 8.3 per cent on average cut each year.
“A methane emissions reduction of almost 30 per cent is required to achieve a 22 per cent reduction in agriculture emissions,” it adds. This would require the adoption of the more demanding target in a range recommended by the Climate Change Advisory Council.
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The Government agreed a 22-30 per cent reduction range for agriculture earlier this year, and is due to sign off on specific carbon ceilings for all sectors in coming weeks.
“The sector must clearly set out how this will be achieved to address uncertainty regarding its ability to deliver even the lower end of the range of its sectoral targets within the ever-shortening timeframe to 2030,” the EPA says.
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With the ending of Covid-19 restrictions, the EPA estimates transport emissions will increase by 18-19 per cent over the 2020-2022 period. Yet, it says it is still possible to achieve a 39 per cent reduction on 2018 emission levels by 2030 if there is full implementation of Government plans and policies in-place and of additional measures announced but not yet implemented. Essential measures include getting more than 940,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030 and measures to support more sustainable transport.
The EPA concludes that the demanding 2030 targets – notably a halving of emissions – can still be achieved but “only if all planned measures are implemented and delivered”. This would also put the country on track for climate neutrality by 2050.
In that scenario, the impact of reduction measures “will result in emissions decreasing from 2023 onwards”. The data indicate, however, that all sectors need to do significantly more to meet their 2030 reduction targets.
EPA senior manager Stephen Treacy said: “The message from the authors of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on climate mitigation was clear – it’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors it will be impossible.”
He said the gap between the “existing measures” and “with additional measures” scenarios in their projections meant the current pace of implementation would not achieve the change required to meet the Climate Act targets. Faster implementation of “additional measures” is needed to close this gap, he said.
Despite the likely shortfall, increased renewable energy generation, if delivered as planned, can reduce energy industry emissions by 10 per cent annually from 2021-30, it predicts – thereby achieving up to 78 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030.
Spending more time at home due to home/office hybrid working and the increasing cost of fossil fuels has highlighted a need for improvements in home heating efficiency and better insulation, the EPA says. Current implemented policies and measures can only deliver a 24 per cent reduction in emissions from this sector by 2030.
“This highlights the need for implementation of the additional policies and measures such as those in the climate action plan, which include installation of 680,000 heat-pumps by 2030 as well as retrofitting 500,000 homes. These are projected to achieve a 41.5 per cent reduction in residential emissions in 2030 compared to 2018.”
Based on existing measures dairy cow numbers are projected to increase by 13.3 per cent (202,000 cows) in 2030 relative to 2020, but beef cow numbers are projected to decrease by 30 per cent. Total cattle in 2030 are projected to be 6.8 million, a 6 per cent (428,000 cattle) decrease relative to 2020. As dairy cows produce more methane per animal than other cattle, this overall decline in animal numbers does not reduce methane emissions, says the EPA.
Details of the 2021-2040 emission projects are available at epa.ie
