Russian Kosovo strategy a lesson to NATO arrogance

Russia's precipitate action in sending troops to Kosovo and beating NATO to Pristina has paid dividends

Russia's precipitate action in sending troops to Kosovo and beating NATO to Pristina has paid dividends. The sequence of events points to a Russian success. On Thursday Lieut Gen Sir Mike Jackson, the British paratroop officer in charge of the NATO forces, was talking about "the international community's" bombing raids on Yugoslavia as if no country outside the alliance existed.

On Friday the NATO contingents were preparing to go ahead without Russian participation. On Saturday NATO officers were forced to consult with the Russians at Pristina airport and yesterday after prolonged talks it was announced in Moscow that the Russian military would have its area of responsibility in Kosovo after all.

Childish behaviour on the part of the NATO allies, who squabbled behind the scenes as to which national contingent would get to Pristina first, gave the Russians their chance and they took it. Now the immediate differences between the NATO countries and Russia appear to have been ironed out after give and take on both sides. These problems arose mainly out of the radically differing views on the peacekeeping operation. NATO was acting in terms of a military victory and seemed prepared to enter Kosovo before a mandate was secured from the UN Security Council. Moscow viewed the situation as resulting from a negotiated settlement in which NATO played no direct part.

That settlement, brokered by Russia's Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin and Finland's President Martti Ahtisaari, envisaged Russian peacekeeping forces playing a major role in Kosovo but NATO's generals did not see it that way. Russian observers believe that if they did not take the action of sending troops to Kosovo they would have been left out in the cold.

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The action itself caused worries in the west that the generals were acting independently of the politicians. These fears, based on the breaking of foreign minister Mr Igor Ivanov's promise that the Russian soldiers would be quickly withdrawn, now appear to be unfounded.

Mr Ivanov's promise, it appears, was made without consulting his ministerial colleagues and more importantly without the express approval of President Yeltsin. It should also be remembered that Mr Ivanov is seen as a representative of the old regime of sacked Prime Minister Mr Yevgeny Primakov.

It now appears that Mr Yeltsin himself may have been involved in the dispatch of the soldiers to Kosovo. It is entirely in keeping with his political style to stay in the background and distance himself from certain actions until they are seen to be successful.

On Saturday when the Russian presence in Pristina began to appear successful, Mr Sergei Prikhodko, Mr Yeltsin's deputy chief of staff, announced that "we have all the necessary instructions from the President pertaining to such a presence."

Recent events have done little to encourage trust between Russia and the western alliance. In 1989 Russia believed it had received guarantees against NATO's eastward expansion in return for German reunification. Not only did NATO expand eastwards but within days of inducting Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic as members, it launched air attacks on Yugoslavia without UN approval.

In the broader sphere NATO's actions have caused Russia to look eastward for allies. NATO's incompetence in bombing the Chinese embassy in Belgrade may have provided precisely the type of ally Moscow has been looking for.