If Bertie Ahern was seeking vindication of his judgment that he should refrain from calling an election for as long as possible, this latest opinion poll provides it in spades.

Just over three months after the O'Flaherty controversy peaked in terms of media attention, the Taoiseach, his Government and his party are suffering its effects even more seriously than they were in June.

The poll results show that Fianna Fail faces a serious challenge to recover from the O'Flaherty/European Investment Bank debacle. The poor showing will further encourage that party to seek time in which to do this. It also puts the spotlight on the question being debated within the Labour Party: will it coalesce with Fianna Fail after an election if the numbers are right?

The bad news for the Government parties is consistent and comprehensive. Satisfaction with the Government, the Taoiseach and the Tanaiste are all at their lowest since the Coalition was formed. While the Government appeared damaged at the height of the O'Flaherty controversy in June, the public thinks even less of it now.

The fall since April has been dramatic, and the poll results indicate strongly that this is due to the negative public view of the Government's persistence with the nomination of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the EIB. Almost four out of five voters across all parties, including the Government parties, believe the affair damaged the Government. Just 6 per cent say it did not.

Government hopes that June's poor poll performance was a temporary blip have, therefore, not been fulfilled. This may partly be due to the fact that the EIB affair has turned out to have a long life. As the Dail went into recess in July, the Government hoped the affair was over; it had "taken a hit" but could now proceed to the next business. However, this was not to be.

The controversy was revived again in the second half of August as the EIB opposition to the nomination became public. It staggered into September following Mr O'Flaherty's withdrawal, the public admissions of misjudgment by the Minister for Finance and the Tanaiste, and the news that Mr Jim Mitchell had been sounded out for the position.

Sampling for this poll was carried out from September 11th to September 22nd. Polling began a few days after the O'Flaherty affair, and the sounding out of Mr Mitchell had faded from the news.

While this was still fresh in the public memory, the political agenda was then taken over by the hauliers' dispute and the attempt to assuage trade union demands for compensation for high inflation.

The Government will hope that such "normal" political issues will now take over the political agenda. Major challenges now face the Government on the economy and Northern Ireland. Barring another political accident or renewed crisis emerging from a tribunal, these will dominate the political agenda between now and Christmas.

On the economy, the Government must manage inflation, defuse trade union and hauliers' anger and produce a popular yet prudent Budget.

On Northern Ireland, the crisis looming for Mr David Trimble and the Belfast Agreement must be dealt with through negotiating a deal on police reform so far unobtainable. Successful handling of both these issues could help to repair some of the damage.

It is not just Mr Ahern and his party who don't fancy an early election. The Progressive Democrats' standing at 2 per cent, down one point, indicates little for a party whose hopes for survival are centred on a handful of constituencies. However, the fall in Ms Harney's personal rating to 42 per cent, down four points since June and 17 since April, will strengthen the party's belief in the need to rebuild its image before facing the people.

Despite the Government's difficulties, the Opposition has little to cheer about. Mr Bruton's poor satisfaction rating of 39 per cent recorded in the last poll has increased by just one percentage point. His party has regained the four percentage points it lost between April and June but at 22 per cent stands in a depressing position for the main party in Opposition.

Labour shows a modest rise of one percentage point but will be dismayed by the fall of five points in the satisfaction rating of its leader, Ruairi Quinn, to 46 per cent, his lowest since becoming party leader.

So far neither he nor Mr Bruton has managed to position himself in the public mind as standing for a clear, attractive alternative.

The poll confirms the prospect of parliamentary instability. While the 10 per cent support for small party and Independent candidates recorded in June has fallen to 7 per cent, this is still a significant figure. The steady 4 per cent Sinn Fein rating and the 3 per cent for the Greens - down one since June - are reminders that the next Dail may see many more deputies from outside the main parties.

The poll result puts renewed focus on the choice to be made by the Labour Party after the next general election. On these figures, the return of the current Government would be in considerable doubt.

However, Fine Gael and Labour could not hope to muster a Dail majority and might not even be able to make up the numbers with the help of the PDs and Greens.

Mr Ahern's speech to his parliamentary party on Wednesday night was pitched to cover precisely such an outcome. His message was that Labour knew that its trade union members preferred the Fianna Fail option; the policy differences between the parties were not insurmountable; Fine Gael didn't understand the culture of coalition; and, anyway, Fine Gael and Labour were like chalk and cheese.

It is a message he could find himself repeating should these figures to repeated in a general election.