Canadians will vote next Monday in a largely unwanted and potentially divisive federal election that pits the ruling Liberals against one of the most right-wing mainstream parties the country has ever seen.
Veteran Prime Minister Jean Chretien called the election less than 3 1/2 years into his second five-year mandate in a bid to spike the guns of rival Stockwell Day, who took over the fledgling Western-based Canadian Alliance only in July.
Opinion polls show the Liberals are on course to win again thanks largely to their domination of Ontario, by far the most populous and powerful of Canada's 10 provinces.
But the long-term price of victory could be high. Chretien's party looks set to be all but wiped out in the four Western provinces, leaving the Alliance overwhelmingly dominant in almost half the country but with no real say in Ottawa.
This could further loosen the ties that bind together the federation that is Canada. Ottawa has already spent 20 years trying to deal with separatist governments in French-speaking Quebec. "The country may be sleepwalking toward a major constitutional crisis," said Allen Mills, professor of political science at the University of Winnipeg.
The Alliance has a chance of winning and that raises shivers of horror in Canada's East, which has provided the country's prime ministers and largely set the political agenda for most of the last 40 years.
It is easy to understand why Day (50), raises such fears in Ottawa, given his Alliance wants to transfer many government powers to the provinces. It also wants huge tax cuts and an end to many programmes designed to help poorer parts of the country.
Chretien says these policies would destroy Canada's communitarian spirit and traditional tolerance for the disadvantaged. Day in turn accuses the Liberals of breaking a string of promises, being soft on crime and grossly mismanaging billions of dollars in government grants.
Day, however, has stumbled over whether Alliance would introduce a private for-profit health care plan to run alongside the creaking state-funded "medicare" scheme, an idea that would be illegal under current Canadian law.
Day's support for binding referendums on sensitive topics such as clamping down on abortions and restoring the death penalty has prompted tough questions as to whether his fervent religious beliefs would affect his conduct as prime minister.
If the polls are to be believed, the Liberals will hang onto power in the 301-seat House of Commons by virtue of their stranglehold over Ontario. Another near clean sweep of Ontario's 103 seats and a reasonable performance in both Atlantic Canada and Quebec will be enough. The separatist Bloc Quebecois, which wants to split from the rest of Canada, is confident it can win another majority of the province's 75 seats.
Chretien and Day are billing this election as a straight fight between their parties. This spells potential obliteration for the left-leaning New Democrats and the minority Conservatives, who have 19 and 15 seats respectively.
