They say Oscar season gets longer and longer. They’re not wrong. And it seems that bit longer when it takes nine months to get back to pretty much where you started.
At the close of the Cannes film festival last May all the talk was of Sean Baker’s Anora, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez and Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. Anora ended up winning the Palme d’Or and was immediately marked down as a potential best-picture nominee. The event erupted to Demi Moore’s defiant performance as a fading star in The Substance. Though history has been somewhat rewritten, Emilia Pérez, which jointly won its stars four best-actress prizes, went down well with a broad band of critics.
As we finally move into Oscar weekend, Anora looks to be favourite for best picture. Moore is just ahead in the race for best actress, with Mikey Madison from Baker’s film her most dangerous rival. And the troubled Emilia Pérez? Well, it could easily win three Oscars.
All very uneventful. Right? Wrong. One of the bitterest and nastiest Oscar seasons since the Weinstein era shook up the early contenders and smacked them round the chops before it deposited many of them where they were originally seated. It is barely two months since Anora, an enormously busy screwball comedy set in after-hours New York, won not a single Golden Globe and was relegated to underdog status. It’s some story.
Who will win and who should win at this year's Oscars
On the positive side, later entrants shook up the Cannes consensus. The musical Wicked went down better with critics than expected. Conclave, a tale of the search for a pope, won many friends and made almost no enemies (with one exception – see below). The Venice film festival delivered a sure-fire contender with Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist and – a slow, slow burner – another eventual best-picture nominee in Walter Salles’s Brazilian drama I’m Still Here.
Nothing confirms the shift in the once-unadventurous academy’s membership more convincingly than the news that half of the 10 best-picture nominees premiered at Cannes or Venice. Should Anora win, it will become only the third Palme d’Or winner to take best picture. The second, Parasite, was just five years ago. The first, Marty, was way back in 1955.
On a more negative note, more supposed smears have been thrown around this year than you encountered throughout all the cardinals’ relentless politicking in Conclave. Some may have been encouraged by rival campaigns. Much came from bored Oscar nerds with nothing else to talk about on social media.
Here is just a sample. An unconcerned Mikey Madison confirmed that Baker did not have an intimacy co-ordinator on the sexually explicit Anora. (Even before it left Cannes, some X users were arguing against supporting a film with Russian protagonists while the Ukraine conflict continued, but that beef never really set in.)
The Brutalist may have used some marginal artificial intelligence to tweak the Hungarian dialogue and to assist in the creation of architectural drawings. “Every aspect of its creation was driven by human effort, creativity, and collaboration,” Corbet hit back. Megyn Kelly, the right-wing American fulminator, popped up to declare Conclave “anti-Catholic”.
[ The 25 greatest upsets in Oscar historyOpens in new window ]
We heard about Adrien Brody kissing Halle Berry “inappropriately” after winning his first best-actor award, in 2003, and saw again video of him impersonating a Jamaican on Saturday Night Live that same year. Footage of Fernanda Torres, best-actress nominee for I’m Still Here, doing a sketch in blackface also emerged. There was more where that came from.
What made that all seem irrelevant was the arrival of a more substantial scandal that would have made noise in any year. Emilia Pérez, less popular in the online wilds than it was at Cannes (or with awards voters), had already attracted ire for its broad depiction of transgender people and of the Mexican narcotics trade. Yet, somehow, neither its detractors nor Netflix, its distributor, thought to go through the stars’ social-media feeds to guard against – or to generate – any further scandal.
It took until January 30th, eight months after Netflix acquired the title, for Sarah Hagi, a journalist based in Canada, to unearth a stream of offensive tweets from Karla Sofía Gascón, the film’s Oscar-nominated lead. Gascón apologised and deleted her X account before returning, on Instagram, to argue that “they” had positioned “things that I wrote to glorify as if they were criticisms, jokes as if they were reality”. Netflix ceased to cover her expenses. She stopped attending precursor awards. If you’re reading this article you already know all this.
There was some talk that nothing like this had ever happened before. That’s not quite true. In early 1991, as Gérard Depardieu was nominated as best actor for Jean-Paul Rappeneau’s beloved Cyrano de Bergerac, the actor made some controversial remarks to Time magazine about his treatment of women as a young man. The accuracy of the translation is still disputed, but, as Time noted, the reported statements “drew an outcry from women’s rights activists, newspaper columnists and others”.
Depardieu was never going to win best actor, but the film itself, a strong favourite as best foreign-language feature, ended up losing to the now entirely forgotten Journey of Hope, from Switzerland. Many Oscar watchers blamed the upset on that scandal.
Emilia Pérez is not going to go home empty-handed. Zoë Saldaña, who plays a lawyer corrupted by the cartels in that film, has sufficiently distanced herself from the scandal to ensure she remains huge favourite for best supporting actress. The film is also a strong contender for best original song.
But, once seemingly unbeatable, it is, in a neat mirror of the Cyrano story, now vulnerable in the category for best international film (formerly best foreign-language film). No film also nominated in best picture has ever lost in the “foreign” race, but this year, for the first time, two films, Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here, land in both categories. The huge Brazilian contingent behind the latter could well profit from Emilia’s travails and nudge Salles’s film to victory.
Once Perezgate landed, best picture looked to be a fight between, in order of likelihood, The Brutalist, Anora, Conclave and, at a stretch, the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown. All that changed three weeks ago when Anora won at the Directors Guild of America, the Producers Guild of America and the Critics Choice awards. A week later Baker’s film also won with the Writers Guild of America.
Only one film has ever failed to win the best-picture Oscar after securing the Writers Guild, Producers Guild and Directors Guild prizes, and many see that film, Brokeback Mountain, as having suffered the biggest upset ever in the category. The loss to Conclave, a British co-production, at Bafta does not mean much. But then came a more significant upset. Conclave beating Anora to the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild awards last weekend confirms that the race is still alive.
If Baker does go on a sweep he has a chance of equalling a stubborn record. Nobody has won more than Walt Disney’s four Oscars, achieved in 1953, on the same night. Bong Joon Ho, director of Parasite, could be seen as losing out on a technicality. His film won best international film in 2020 but, weirdly, that goes to the country, not the director, and he must therefore settle for just three in his own name. Baker is genuinely competitive in editing, original screenplay, director and (as producer) best picture.
The most interesting of the big categories is surely best actress. Moore, identified as a huge favourite after a Globes win, stumbled with losses to Madison at Bafta and the Independent Spirit awards, but her win at Sag, where Anora took nothing, just about sets her straight. She is favourite, but not by much.
Kieran Culkin is safe as best supporting actor for A Real Pain. As we have observed, Saldaña should walk away with best supporting actress. A fascinating tussle presents itself in best actor. Brody, despite the attempted slurs, remains in front for The Brutalist. A win for Timothée Chalamet, who plays Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, at that fascinating Sag ceremony means, however, that he will be looking nervously over his shoulder. Brody holds, with that win for The Pianist, the record for youngest person to take the best-actor Oscar (at the relatively advanced age of 29). Should Chalamet win he will beat the record by 278 days.
And what became of the Irish at the Oscars? At the start of the year Saoirse Ronan looked to be in with a chance of a rare two Oscar nominations, one for best actress and one for supporting, at the same ceremony, but not enough people saw The Outrun and not enough people liked Blitz.
Rich Peppiatt’s Kneecap looks to have been sixth or seventh in the competition for one of the five spots as best international film.
[ Oscars 2025: Kneecap’s failure to get a nomination is a genuine upsetOpens in new window ]
It has, amid those disappointments, been easy to forget that an Irish professional is favourite for a win at the 97th awards. Bookmakers have Nick Emerson, from the great city of Lisburn, at 6/4 to take best editing for Conclave. He recently told the BBC how watching the peace talks in the North unfold inspired him when cutting together the machinations in Edward Berger’s film.
“Working in the BBC newsroom at the start of my career was a really exciting place to be,” he said. “There were a lot of peace talks and a lot of news.”
On Monday morning he has a good chance of making the news himself.
The 97th Academy Awards: All the nominees, plus my predictions
Best picture
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
Will win: Anora. Back on track with a host of guild awards. Early concerns about it being too saucy for conservative voters forgotten. But that Sag loss to Conclave is not to be dismissed.
Should win: The Brutalist. Or Anora. No edition that features those two stormers counts as a “weak year”.
Best director
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
- Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Will win: Sean Baker. Corbet is still close, but Anora’s resurgence should drag its director along.
Should win: Brady Corbet. Made an American epic for the price of a mumblecore indie.
Best actor in a leading role
- Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Will win: Adrien Brody. But Chalamet gained on him by a few lengths with his win at Sag.
Should win: Adrien Brody. For shouldering enormous weight over 3½ hours of screentime.
Best actress in a leading role
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Demi Moore, The Substance
- Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Will win: Demi Moore. Her triumph at Sag keeps her just ahead of Mikey Moore. But Oscar history is littered with upsets where the younger actor surprised the supposed “career winner”. Demi beware.
Should win: Mikey Madison. Knocks the screwball out of the park like a Barbara Stanwyck or a Jean Arthur.
Best actress in a supporting role
- Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
- Zoë Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Will win: Zoë Saldaña. Actually managed to make voters feel sorry for her after the Gascon tweets.
Should win: Isabella Rossellini. Absurdly short performance? Don’t care. It’s about the impact an actor can make with limited material. Also, it’s Isabella.
Best actor in a supporting role
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Will win: Kieran Culkin. Like Saldaña, really a colead. Nonetheless has won everything so far. Unbeatable.
Should win: Guy Pearce. The swaggering Lucifer to Brody’s not-quite Faust.
Best adapted screenplay
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
Will win: Conclave. Looks in the bag. Buckets of dialogue.
Should win: Nickel Boys. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’s experimental take on Colson Whitehead’s book eschews worthy translation.
Best original screenplay
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Real Pain
- September 5
- The Substance
Will win: Anora. The rush of the action may obscure what a moving piece of writing this is.
Should win: The Brutalist. Corbet and co-writer Mona Fastvold, always intent on the unsaid, don’t fall into the trap of slipping into the (great American) novelistic.
Best cinematography
- The Brutalist
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Maria
- Nosferatu
Will win: The Brutalist. The industry professionals will recognise the achievement of wrestling VistaVision equipment up and down that hill.
Should win: Maria. The forgotten great film of the season. Lovely autumnal images of 1970s Paris.
Best editing
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
Will win: Conclave. The awareness that a propulsive story is smoothly told should see Lisburn’s Nick Emerson home.
Should win: Anora. Baker, editing his own film, has a totality of vision that can’t be equalled.
Best animated feature
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Memoir of a Snail
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- The Wild Robot
Will win: The Wild Robot. They usually defer to the commercial release, but not always. So watch out for ...
Should win: Flow. Lovely Latvian film gives us the year’s best cat.
Best international feature
- I’m Still Here
- The Girl with the Needle
- Emilia Pérez
- The Seed of a Sacred Fig
- Flow
Will win: I’m Still Here. I’m betting the growing enthusiasm for I’m Still Here and waxing love for Emilia Pérez will take the Brazilian film home.
Should win: Flow. Or Sacred Fig. Great to see a silent film triumph in another category.
Best documentary feature
- Black Box Diaries
- No Other Land
- Porcelain War
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
- Sugarcane
Will win: No Other Land. Palestinian doc would be a popular political choice. It’s also a fine film.
Should win: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat. Singular doc that blends jazz with world politics and ... Conor Cruise O’Brien (!)
Best sound
- A Complete Unknown
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Will win: Dune: Part Two. People seem to have forgotten about the second Dune, but it should still take a few tech awards.
Should win: The Wild Robot. A truly lovely animation with a richly imagined soundscape.
Best original song
- El Mal, Emilia Pérez
- The Journey, The Six Triple Eight
- Like a Bird, Sing Sing
- Mi Camino, Emilia Pérez
- Never Too Late, Elton John: Never Too Late
Will win: El Mal. Really dull selection of nothingy songs. El Mal wins by default.
Should win: El Mal. At least I remember the rap-rock bit.
Best original score
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- The Wild Robot
Will win: The Brutalist. Daniel Blumberg’s vast brassy honks will not be denied.
Should win: The Brutalist. Shame Corbet’s early collaborator Scott Walker died before the director broke through, but Blumberg proves a worthy replacement.
Best make-up and hairstyling
- A Different Man
- Emilia Pérez
- Nosferatu
- The Substance
- Wicked
Will win: The Substance. It’s not as if they can miss what’s been done to Demi Moore.
Should win: The Substance. Obviously we admire subtlety, but sometimes you have to give in to bombast.
Best costume design
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
Will win: Wicked. That horrid stuff has a real “pick me!” quality.
Should win: Nosferatu. Goth style to die for. And to rise from the dead for.
Best production design
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Wicked
Will win: Wicked. See above. Looks horrible. That’s what they like.
Should win: The Brutalist. For that library alone.
Best visual effects
- Alien: Romulus
- Better Man
- Dune: Part Two
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Wicked
Will win: Dune: Part Two. It’s an “effects movie”. What do you need to know?
Should win: Better Man. Who would not enjoy seeing the Robbie Williams chimp movie triumph?
Best live action short
- A Lien
- Anuja
- I’m Not a Robot
- The Last Ranger
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Will win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. Winner of the short Palme d’Or, this tale of bravery concerning the Strpci massacre is hard to resist.
Should win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. A complete narrative horror in 13 minutes.
Best animated short
- Beautiful Men
- In the Shadow of the Cypress
- Magic Candies
- Wander to Wonder
- Yuck!
Will win: Wander to Wonder. Might be a bit too odd. But the ambition will draw attention.
Should win: Wander to Wonder. Yarn about characters from a children’s show surviving their creator is eerie and moving.
Best documentary short
- Death by Numbers
- I Am Ready, Warden
- Incident
- Instruments of a Beating Heart
- The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Will win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra. Already on Netflix, this tale of the New York Philharmonic’s first woman professional is an easy watch.
Should win: Instruments of a Beating Heart. Lovely story of Japanese children playing Ode to Joy.
