Bruton can look to the future with confidence

Any whiff of a leadership challenge to John Bruton will have been dissipated by the results of these elections

Any whiff of a leadership challenge to John Bruton will have been dissipated by the results of these elections. Fine Gael substantially increased its share of the vote in the European elections and outperformed the major parties by adding to its share of the vote in contests for the county and county borough councils.

It will take time before the final seats are filled and the successful candidates applauded in the various contests. But going on the percentage of first preference votes secured by the various parties, the Fine Gael leader can look to the future with confidence.

Fine Gael secured an increase of 1.5 per cent on its 1991 figure of 26.4 per cent, while Sinn Fein added 1.4 percentage points. At the same time, Fianna Fail dropped by 0.6 per cent. The Progressive Democrats lost most ground, when its vote almost halved. The Labour Party and the Green Party increased their showing in marginal terms.

After years of arid effort, Sinn Fein developed a strong local authority beachhead south of the border, filling some of the political protest space once held by the Workers' Party. Boosting its county and county borough council vote from 2.1 per cent to 3.5 per cent, the party secured a breakthrough in those deprived inner city areas where it had concentrated its political energies for the past number of years.

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Dublin and Cork returned an unexpectedly large number of councillors for the party, as did the border regions. And its European candidates polled sufficiently strongly to ensure they will retain high profiles for the next general elections. Overall, Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness should be pleased by the inroads that have been made.

Hard work, perseverance and early candidate selection paid off, as did a repetition of the tactics and strategies that helped Sinn Fein to grow so rapidly in Northern Ireland. And, in spite of indications to the contrary, a failure to recover bodies of the "disappeared" had little effect on the party's vote.

Sinn Fein's popular vote still languishes at 3.5 per cent, however, and while it is particularly concentrated in some areas, it poses no immediate threat to the major parties.

As Sinn Fein's fortunes waxed, those of the Progressive Democrats waned. And while Mary Harney had the satisfaction of seeing a number of young, high-profile candidates being returned at county and city level, the party vote almost halved, from 5 per cent to 2.7 per cent. The PDs did not even contest the European Parliament elections.

The success of potential Dail candidates for the Progressive Democrats in these elections went some way towards providing the party with a lifeline to the future. But the underlying trend, in terms of declining support for the party, is bleak.

The Labour Party added less than a point to the local election tally secured by the party in 1991. But it failed to garner the vote previously held by Democratic Left. And it performed particularly badly in the European elections.

Ruairi Quinn can look with some satisfaction to the party's performance in Dublin and in a number of other constituencies, but the breakthrough the party had hoped for did not materialise. The only saving grace was that the anger of the electorate towards the party, as evidenced in the 1995 general election, appeared to have dissipated.

The poor showing of the party's European candidates outside Dublin shows that a great deal of work remains to be done in terms of organisation and candidate selection.

The electorate appears to have taken "time out" in making up its mind on long-term political trends, because there is no seismic shift in support levels for the major parties. Nothing like the 7 per cent drop in Fianna Fail support between 1985 and 1991, or Fine Gael's 2.6 per cent fall, has occurred on this occasion. But there is one unmistakable message: Fine Gael has been confirmed as the public's second choice. The Labour Party's challenge to become the second largest party in the State has been rejected by voters in favour of traditional party alignments.

In that regard, Fianna Fail has done relatively well in very difficult circumstances, caused by the findings of the various tribunals. Its local election vote fell by less than a percentage point but its European election performance was patchy.

At local level, the long hours and hard work invested in candidate selection and vote management appeared likely to pay off. In the general election of 1997, Fianna Fail gained an extra 10 Dail seats with the same percentage of the vote it garnered in 1992 and, in these local elections, it looks set to repeat the same trick.

Late last night the party was fighting to retain its second Connacht/ Ulster seat as Dana and Marian Harkin threatened the ambitions of Noel Treacy. But, elsewhere the performance was solid.

Bertie Ahern could hardly complain. With the economy booming and the party's local election base secured, Fianna Fail looks an oddson favourite to lead the next government, no matter what composition that coalition takes. But the prospect of an overall Dail majority has receded into the distant future.

The Green Party has done well in the European elections, but the hoped for breakthrough did not happen for the party in the local elections.