Unemployment rises despite dip in October

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell in October for the second consecutive month.

The 2.3 per cent decline means 157,706 people are now registered as being out of work.

This compares to 161,400 in September, and is the lowest level reached by the live register since May, according to the latest analysis from the Central Statistics Office.

The data shows that the standardised unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.3 per cent for the past two months.

The register continues to rise on an annual basis, however, with 15,871 more people claiming benefit than at the same point last year, a growth of 11.2 per cent. In September, this annual growth was 14.9 per cent.

When the data is seasonally adjusted to eliminate factors such as parts of the workforce returning to education, the annual increase falls to 10.8 per cent.

The seasonally adjusted fall between September and October was 100, a change economists said was too slight to be significant.

Bloxham chief economist Mr Alan McQuaid said the overall figures could indicate the start of a positive trend in jobless numbers.

"It looks likes the worst is over," he said.

Mr McQuaid added that, if the US Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut today, the global economic situation should brighten considerably over the medium term.

But for now, he remains "optimistic although wary" on the live register.

Ms Geraldine Concagh, economist with AIB Group Treasury, was similarly sceptical, noting that a more significant trend would be required before any real directional change in employment levels could be signalled.

"It's too early to say that the labour market has stabilised," said Ms Concagh, warning that a risk of further "haemorrhaging" remained.

This risk was illustrated yesterday with news that redundancies continued to rise in October, with 1,783 people made redundant over the month, 2.5 per cent more than in October last year.

In the year to date, 21,024 redundancies have been notified to the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, a 33.4 per cent growth on the same point in 2001.

Labour party spokesman on Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Mr Brendan Howlin, said the live register analysis represented "bleak news" in advance of the forthcoming Budget.

He accused the Government of demonstrating a lack of leadership and said we can expect to see a continuing rate of unemployment in the months ahead.