Cantillon: Mobile war continues but a new front is emerging

A case of so near and yet so far for Three Mobile, in its attempt to topple Vodafone as the number one mobile operator in Ireland when measured by customer numbers.

Comreg, the communications regulator, this week released its quarterly market data for all telcos including mobile companies. When last it released such data three months ago, Three, having formally swallowed O2 in the spring, was on the verge of knocking Vodafone off its perch.

Three had a 36.9 per cent share of all subscribers, compared to Vodafone’s 37.1 per cent, and the upstart also had the upper hand in terms of trajectory.

When the latest figures were released on Thursday, however, Vodafone had stretched its lead, with 38 per cent versus Three’s 36.3 per cent.

The reason for the renewed gap is not a rebirth of Vodafone’s commercial verve, but a change in the way its figures are reported.

Total subscriber numbers include mobile broadband customers and also machine-to-machine accounts, which refer to subscriptions for pieces of technology that use mobile networks to send data or connect to the internet: smart meters, data transmitters, etc.

In previous market reports, Vodafone was the only operator whose total did not include its machine-to-machine numbers, and it was under-reporting its figures by up to 125,000 relative to its competitors. With machine-to-machine included, it still has a healthy lead.

The best measure of who is the biggest, however, is market share by revenues. On this metric, Vodafone still has sizeable lead over its rival: 42.8 per cent versus Three’s 35.2 per cent. What’s more, Vodafone has held its share steady over successive quarters, despite, or perhaps because of a marketing and pricing onslaught by its competitors.

Beyond the chest-thumping of the larger operators, however, it matters little which operator has the biggest market share. What matters to customers is price, value and quality of service.

Across Europe, established players such as Vodafone are looking for ways into fixed-line and fibre services, as mobile revenues are put under pressure by internet telephony and the decline in texting because of services such as Whatsapp and Facebook messenger.

Vodafone is reputed to be considering a bid for Liberty Global, the parent of UPC in Ireland.

If that were to happen, Three may yet live to rue its failure to buy Eircom out of examinership in 2012.