This week may see some renewed turbulence on the currency markets. The pound, which came under renewed speculative attack on Thursday, is seen as being in a precarious position.
Speculation about the entry rates of European currencies to the euro is expected to come more into focus. If the markets decide that a revaluation of the pound is becoming more unlikely it could see some heavy selling.
However, some analysts point out that there are good fundamentals underpinning it.
Comments from Bundesbank Council members will also be closely watched. The Bundesbank only sets it key market interest rate for two weeks, despite the fact that it now on four weeks holiday.
This has prompted talk that it may allow the rate to float as a precursor to raising rates later this year. If that is seen as becoming more unlikely it could underpin the deutschmark, thus allowing the pound to fall in the exchange rate mechanism without losing too much against sterling.
But the key factor for the Irish authorities will be the performance of sterling itself. In a week with few key UK economic figures, much will depend on market sentiment, which has recently been to buy the British currency. The Irish authorities will hope that this tide of buying will turn soon.
Allied Irish Bank is expected to announce a strong set of first half results on Thursday. Pre-tax profits are expected to be well ahead of the £201 million for the corresponding first half of 1996. Profits will be boosted by a good growth in a buoyant domestic economy where loan demand remains very strong, a rise in profits from the US operation and by a gain on translation of sterling profits into Irish pounds.
As AIB shares have risen on the stock market the company this month became the first Irish stock to exceed £5 billion in market value.
This week is a crucial one for US economic data, particularly July's labour market figures. The markets are currently expecting a 200,000 rise in payrolls, according to Riada Stockbrokers, which represents a slowdown from the average in the second quarter.
If it varies much from that the currency and equity markets could experience some turbulence. This is the indicator which sparked many of the recent rallies and indeed downturn on Wall Street.
Figures earlier in the week will give a clue as to whether there is any upward pressures.
The new Government has been a lit unlucky on the jobs front. While the previous administration benefited from a string of major jobs announcements, the new Minister for Enterprise, Employment and Trade, Ms Harney, has had to contend with the closure of Asahi and a number of other cases where jobs are threatened. And while the Rainbow benefited from an almost unbroken decline in the live register figures, the new coalition says the live register jump by 1,500 on a seasonally adjusted basis in June. It will be hoping for a resumption of the downward trend in the July figures, due for publication on Friday.
MONDAY
Results: Hibernian (interims)
Figures: German current account and trade figures for May.
Meetings: Adare egm to approve UK acquisition. Shelbourne (11 a.m.)
Others: Irish/US double tax convention to be signed. ISME launching its agenda for new Government. Official opening of Silicon and Software Systems in Clonskeagh, Dublin.
TUESDAY
Results: Golden Vale (interims) Dresdner (interims). Abbey National ( interims).
Figures: UK M4 (broad money supply) figures for June. US consumer confidence for July.
Other: Bull Information Sytem seminar on Smart Cards.Dublin.
WEDNESDAY
Results: ACCBank (interims) BAT (interims). Guardian Royal Exchange ( interims). Amdahl (Q2).
Figures: US new home sales (June)
THURSDAY
Results: Abbey (full year). AIB ( interim). Green Property (interims) Cowie Group (interims) Galxo Wellcome (interims)
Meetings: Bank of France monthly policy meeting.
Figures: Irish banking and insurance earnings for quarter one. US GDP (Q2).
FRIDAY
Results. Lloyds TSB (interims). Unilever ( interims)
Figures: Irish unemployment ( July) and Industrial Production (April). US non-farm payrolls - unemployment and employment (July).
