Stocktake: New highs are bullish, not bearish

Don’t make error of imagining high prices presage poor returns

LPL Research data reveals returns get better after a long time without new highs.
LPL Research data reveals returns get better after a long time without new highs.

Many investors get vertigo when stocks are trading at all-time highs. However, there’s nothing bearish about new highs, according to LPL Research data. Indeed, returns get better after a long time without new highs.

Pattern emerges

Historically, after hitting their first high in more than five months, stocks enjoyed stronger returns over the following one-, three-, six- and 12-month periods. This time may be different, of course, but don’t make the mistake of thinking new highs presage poor returns. Market momentum isn’t bearish – it’s bullish.

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Proinsias O'Mahony

Proinsias O'Mahony

Proinsias O’Mahony, a contributor to The Irish Times, writes the weekly Stocktake column