Irish Continental shares dip 3%

Shares in Irish Continental Group dipped by 3 per cent yesterday as new data pointed to significant weakness in Irish Sea passenger traffic.

Figures compiled by the Swedish publisher, Shippax, show that Irish Continental's car volumes have declined by 7 per cent in the year to date, with some individual routes marking a greater fall.

Sailings between Holyhead and Dublin have recorded a 13 per cent drop in passenger numbers.

The falls in passenger numbers came as roll-on roll-off freight volumes improved, although yields in this arm of the business are as yet unclear.

While two-thirds of cars are carried by Irish Continental in the three months between July and September, analysts said the numbers highlighted the challenge facing Irish Continental and other ferry companies.

This has been magnified in the case of Irish Continental because the firm's services were disrupted earlier this year due to industrial unrest.

NCB analyst, Mr John Sheehan, said he would be knocking up to 11 per cent off his forecasts for Irish Continental on the back of the latest traffic trends.

He pointed to climbing oil prices as another reason to revise his outlook, with Irish Continental's fuel commitments remaining unhedged at the moment. The firm's total fuel bill amounted to 7 per cent of group revenues in 2003.

Mr Sheehan is now expecting earnings per share of 90 cents for the firm this year, down from his previous forecast of 100.5 cents.

Goodbody Stockbrokers analyst, Mr Joe Gill, suggested that fuel charges would help to alleviate some of the pressure on Irish Continental.

He also pointed out that the firm's healthy cashflow remains intact.

"We are also just a month into the important third quarter so some passenger growth is plausible in that period," he noted.

An update on this is likely to emerge when the firm reports interim results in September.

Shares in Irish Continental closed unchanged at €9.40 last night, having touched a low of €9.10 earlier in the day.

The stock has fallen back by 12 per cent in the year to date.