Grexit, Grexodus or Grexident?

Recently the Financial Times ran an interesting letter from a reader who put forth the etymological reasons why we should consider ditching the portmanteau 'Grexit' in favour of 'Grexodus'.

He pointed out that the origin of the word exit is Latin, whereas exodus comes from Greek, before going on to suggest that exodus is preferable because it has more positive connotations.

But of course there is a third possibility, with some commentators now mooting the 'Grexident' theory, arguing that an accidental series of events could result in Greece leaving the euro zone.

Certainly, the situation in the embattled southern European state is becoming increasingly precarious. According to Bloomberg, market metrics indicate that Greece is in danger of sinking under the burden of its debt. And in a recent note, Deutsche Bank warned that the risk of a "political accident" remains high in Greece as banks are running out of liquidity and the government is running out of cash.

The bank highlighted a € 460 million debt repayment due to the International Monetary Fund today as a possible trigger for default.

"In order to secure further bailout funding, a reform list approved by Europe needs to pass parliament," a spokesman for Deutsche Bank told us. "Our baseline remains that a resolution can be reached, but uncertainty will remain high."

Just how likely is it that Greece will depart the euro, whether by means of a Grexit, Grexodus or Grexident?

Some commentators have said it all comes down to what’s going on in the corridors of power in Athens; in other words, it’s very difficult to call it at this stage.

However, developments this week as Greece’s IMF debt falls due should give a greater sense of whether a departure can be avoided.

Whatever the future holds for Greece, the general consensus is that the latest phase in this drama does not carry the same risks of fiscal contagion as existed when the debt crisis peaked in 2012. The theory goes that other countries are insulated by ‘firewalls’ since put in place, such as the European Stability Mechanism, and it is thought that the quantitative easing scheme further protects the euro area against a rise in peripheral bond yields.