Youth jobless rate ticks up as overall unemployment stays at record low of 3.8% in June

The unemployment rate in the Republic was unchanged in June, new data show, but youth unemployment is increasing.

Figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said the seasonally adjusted rate of joblessness stayed at the record low of 3.8 per cent recorded in May. That was down from 3.9 per cent in April, and lower than the 4.2 per cent recorded in June last year.

The seasonally adjusted number of people who were unemployed in June was 105,400, compared with 102,800 in May.

Economists consider an unemployment rate of 4 per cent or less as full employment.

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The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for males was slightly higher, at 4.2 per cent in June versus 4.1 per cent in May 2023 and June 2022. In contrast, the rate was unchanged month-on-month for women at 3.4 per cent, and down from 4.4 per cent a year ago.

For those in the 15-24 age group, unemployment rose to 7.4 per cent in June, up from 6.9 per cent in May. It was unchanged for the 25-74 age group, at 3.3 per cent.

“Maintaining the record low unemployment rate of 3.8 per cent is a massive success, but behind the rate, there are 2,600 more people on the live register this month than last month,” said Grant Thornton economist Andrew Webb. “While this is likely due to a seasonal churn, with school and college leavers entering the fray, it is something to be alert to.

“For now, the overriding message... is that the labour market remains tight and that people with the right skills are increasingly hard to find. The coming months will reveal if this month’s increase in the live register is a blip or the start of a softer labour market.”

[ Unemployment in Republic hits record low of 3.8%, eclipsing Celtic Tiger figure ]

The Irish economy has seen stronger growth since the lifting of Covid-related restrictions. But last month the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) slashed its growth forecast for the Irish economy on the back of a marked slowdown in multinational exports by the pharma sector. In a regular update, the think tank said it expected the economy here to grow by just 0.1 per cent in gross domestic product terms this year, down from previous forecasts of 5.5 per cent.

On Monday, stockbroker Davy downgraded its growth forecast for the Irish economy on the back of volatile data relating to exports and the multinational sector, warning that growth would be restricted from next year due to labour shortages and capacity pressures. It predicted GDP would grow 5.5 per cent this year, down from a previous forecast of 6.9 per cent.