Holidaymakers face possible flight cancellations from the end of May if the current squeeze on jet fuel supplies continues, according to Willie Walsh, the Irishman who leads air travel’s main industry body.
Walsh predicted the cancellations on Friday as reports said that Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz, the vital oil and gas shipping lane, open to commercial vessels while its ceasefire with the US lasts.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Europe has around six weeks of jet fuel left as a result of the conflict in the Middle East and the continued blockade of Hormuz.
European travellers could see “some cancellations for lack of jet fuel” by the end of May, International Air Travel Association chief executive Walsh warned on Friday.
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“The IEA’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages is sobering,” he added.
He noted that Asian airlines were already cancelling flights.
“Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-co-ordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary,” he said.
Walsh said this should include “slot relief”, an arrangement that would ensure airlines forced to cancel flights due to fuel shortages would not lose their take-off and landing slots at airports.
IEA chief executive Fatih Birol confirmed that Asian carriers were on the front line, but warned that Europe and the Americas would begin to suffer if the conflict continued to limit supplies.
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Ryanair said this week that its suppliers could guarantee it enough jet fuel until some time next month.
The Irish airline, Europe’s biggest carrier, added that fuel could be in short supply after that if shipping does not resume in Hormuz.
“If the war in Iran finishes soon, then supply will not be disrupted,” said Ryanair.
“If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June, then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”
Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said earlier this month that if the war continued through April, there could be a risk to fuel supplies.
Aer Lingus confirmed that it had begun flying its summer schedule as planned.
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“A number of recent cancellations have been required due to mandatory maintenance on aircraft, along with a limited number of schedule adjustments,” the airline stated.
“Where schedule adjustments are being made, the vast majority of customers are being reaccommodated on same day services.”
Much of the oil and gas that moves through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia. Airlines in the region began adding surcharges to tickets to cover increased fuel costs in March.
Reports later on Friday said Iran had declared Hormuz open for the remainder of the ceasefire with the US, which is due to run until April 22nd.
Crude oil prices fell on the news. However, some reports said the choke point had only reopened to commercial shipping, with permission from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
US president Donald Trump said the naval blockade on Iranian ports would remain.
