The eastern and midlands region of the Republic has a shortage of residential zoned and serviced land to meet development needs over the next six years to the tune of 40,000 to 70,000 units, according to a new report by Goodbody stockbrokers.
The firm said the report amounts to the first comprehensive assessment of the availability of residential land across the State, drawing on a new data set from residential zoned land tax maps to quantify the extent of zoned, serviced land across 31 local authorities.
Goodbody estimates that there are 7,911 hectares of residentially zoned, serviced land with no active planning associated with it across the State.
“Our baseline estimate is that there is land sufficient to supply 417,000 units across Ireland,” said Dermot O’Leary, the firm’s chief economist.
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“However, 138,000 (33 per cent) of these are in eastern and midlands region, 110,000 (26 per cent) are in the southern region, and 168,000 (40 per cent) are in the northern and western region. The location of this land is out of line with the current regional distribution of households in Ireland and with the targets around regional distribution in the National Planning Framework.”
While the northern and western regions account for 40 per cent of zoned land, this only accounts for 18 per cent of households in the State.
The key eastern and midlands region, which includes Dublin and surrounding counties, accounts for only 34 per cent of the available land, but 48 per cent of households. The report highlighted that the percentage of Irish households based in the eastern and midlands region has been little changed over the past 45 years.
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Taking account of housing requirements, extant planning permissions and a need for a land buffer, Goodbody estimates that that there is insufficient zoned serviced land in the eastern and midlands and southern regions to meet updated housing supply targets over six years.
Goodbody estimates that there is a need for as many as 60,000 units a year over this period to deal with an existing shortfall of supply as well as forecast population growth. Taoiseach Simon Harris has targeted the development of 250,000 houses over the next five years. He estimated recently that close to 40,000 new homes will be completed this year, up from around 32,700 in 2023.
The Economic and Social Research Institute estimates that the population of the State will increase by 922,000 between 2022 and 2040, driven by immigration, resulting in a total population of more than 6.1 million people by the end of the period.
“We calculate that there is a need for additional residential land to supply 40,000-70,000 units in the eastern and midlands region (19-35 per cent above current estimated residential land yield) and 1,000-19,000 units (1-15 per cent) in the southern region,” noted the Goodbody report.
“There are important differences across local authorities within these regional totals. It is vital that local authorities ensure that there is sufficient zoned and serviced land available to meet housing targets. Infrastructure plans should be co-ordinated in line with housing requirements across departments, agencies and semi-states that are responsible for these areas.”
Meanwhile, the latest reading from the seasonally-adjusted BNP Baribas Real Estate Ireland monthly barometer of construction activity in the Republic showed that housing activity dipped in August from the previous month. The purchasing managers index reading for housing activity fell to 49.8 from 53.2 in July — albeit following five months of expansion. A reading below 50 per cent indicated contraction.
However, an increase in commercial activity resulted in the overall construction total activity index remaining unchanged at 50 in August.
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