Novo Nordisk reports earnings on Wednesday, and for once, Wall Street isn’t holding its breath. Once celebrated for routinely raising guidance, the Danish drugmaker is on the defensive.
No longer Europe’s most valuable company, shares have almost halved since early December, dragged down by disappointing trial data, intensifying competition from Eli Lilly, and growing doubts over Novo’s ability to defend its position in the GLP-1 obesity drug market.
Zepbound, Lilly’s obesity drug, has overtaken Novo’s equivalent, Wegovy, in the US and now commands over 50 per cent of the market.
Novo had the early lead but its first-mover advantage has waned, undone by Lilly’s superior supply chain, faster rollout of telehealth partnerships, and promising oral pipeline.
Analysts have likened it to the story of the tortoise and the hare, but Lilly is not having it all its own way.
Shares sank following Lilly’s own earnings report on Thursday, with better-than-expected earnings overshadowed by news of a partnership between Novo and US healthcare giant CVS Health.
Tuesday’s results won’t decide the race – but for Novo, another stumble could make the finish line feel even further away.
