Elon Musk is “the clear favourite to become the first trillionaire by 2027″, according to a new report from Informa Connect Academy which got much more attention than it should have.
The most-read story on the Guardian website, it sparked apoplectic fits of righteous indignation on X/Twitter.
In reality, the odds are against Musk becoming a trillionaire by 2027. Similarly, saying Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang “is expected to become a trillionaire in 2028″ is daft, as is the list of “multibillionaires who will probably become trillionaires sooner or later.”
The report looks at the billionaires’ average annual growth rate over the last five years and extrapolates these rates into the future. The annual growth rates for Musk, Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, and Jensen Huang are 109.88, 122.86, and 111.88 per cent, respectively.
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Assuming exponential growth continues indefinitely is not the most reliable way of estimating future wealth. Some online interest calculators won’t allow you to input triple-digit growth rates, for this very reason.
For what it’s worth, I did the maths. The report says Musk was worth $195 billion (€175 billion) in July. If his wealth continues growing by 110 per cent annually, he will be worth $8 trillion in five years, $325 trillion in 10 years, and $542 quadrillion in 20 years.
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