One of Donald Trump’s most famous remarks was made in 2016: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters.”
That joke always contained a kernel of truth. Trump’s core supporters are incredibly loyal, sticking with their hero despite 91 criminal indictments and numerous violent or vulgar statements that would have ended the careers of more conventional politicians.
But while “shooting” somebody might not lose Trump voters, there is already speculation that being shot at, and lightly wounded, might tip the presidential election decisively in his favour. In the aftermath of this weekend’s attempted assassination, the betting markets moved in Trump’s favour. Nate Silver, doyen of polling analysts, believes that “this at the very least makes Trump much more sympathetic”. He thinks that the large numbers of Americans who dislike both candidates “might find it easier now to pull the lever for Trump”.
A normal politician might indeed expect to gain a significant sympathy vote after surviving an attempted assassination. But Trump is a highly polarising figure. Millions of “never Trump” voters are unlikely to become “Yes Trumpers”, however appalled they are by the vile attempted murder. So the fear that some Democrats are expressing in private that the election is “over” is too fatalistic.
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The cohort of floating voters in the US is small. Some may be inspired by the bravado with which Trump has shaken off an attempt on his life. But others could be unsettled if there is too much rage on display at this week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee, where Trump is due to accept his party’s nomination.
Much will depend on how Trump himself plays things in his acceptance speech. His early response on social media was to call for calm and national unity. Sticking to that message would be a wise move for his campaign and for the country. If Trump indulges his taste for divisive rhetoric about vengeance, he will whip up passions and might scare off some floating voters.
The Trump campaign will certainly use the attempted assassination to ram home two key themes of the campaign: strength and victimhood. However, vengeance is also a favourite Trump theme, one that he finds hard to resist. Last year he told a political rally: “I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”
Trump surrogates are already blaming the Democrats for the attempt on his life. Senator JD Vance of Ohio, named by Trump as his running mate, has accused the Biden campaign of creating a toxic political climate that “led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination”.
The sense of victimhood among Republicans is probably sincere in some respects. Former Trump aides such as Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro are serving prison sentences for refusing to testify before Congress. Trump still awaits sentencing for paying hush money to a porn star.
But the Republican claim that the Democrats have encouraged political violence is also a calculated effort to shut down the major theme of the Biden campaign – that Trump is a would-be dictator and a continuing threat to American democracy.
That tactic may put the Democrats on the back foot for a while. The Biden team pulled their campaign ads in the immediate aftermath of the shooting. However, it would be unrealistic to expect the Democrats to drop their central argument for the rest of the campaign. The fact that somebody tried to kill Trump does not mean that his attempted subversion of the 2020 presidential election never happened, or that it would now be unfair to mention the storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6th, 2021.
In fact, it is crucial to understand the differences between the events of January 6th and the attempt on Trump’s life last weekend. Innocent people were killed on both occasions. But on January 6th, the mob that attacked the Capitol was encouraged by Trump himself. By contrast, Biden and his team have never incited violence or refused to accept the result of an election.
Most Americans have already made their mind up about the storming of the Capitol and about Trump. The assassination attempt over the weekend is unlikely to alter those judgments.
By contrast, the television debate last month between Trump and Biden did present information that was new to millions of voters. Biden’s shambolic performance underlined questions about his fitness for another four years in office. Biden, encouraged by his family and inner circle, is resisting calls to step aside in favour of a younger and sharper candidate. Those calls were growing in volume before the attempt on Trump’s life.
The drive to get Biden replaced as the Democratic candidate may now lose momentum as the president and his loyalists argue that this is not the time to deliver a further shock to the American system. But time is running out for the Democrats and they cannot afford to drop the issue. There are just five weeks to go before their own convention in Chicago.
It is Biden’s infirmity, rather than the attempt to kill Trump, that still looks like the most probable game-changer in the 2024 election.
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024
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