The Biden administration probably does not need another headache over the continuing fallout from Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol.
The White House is already struggling with a growing problem of inflation, which just like in Ireland, is at levels unseen for decades.
The sky-high cost of petrol, rising food prices and a general sense that all is not well on the economic front — even though jobs are plentiful — suggests that Joe Biden’s Democratic Party is in line for a trouncing in mid-term elections in November.
The president successfully put together an international coalition to oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As the conflict drags on, and the economic consequences become more apparent, holding this group in step may become more difficult.
Rows that could potentially lead to a trade war between two of the most important components of this coalition, the UK and EU, would make the job much harder, maybe impossible.
The British government’s decision to publish legislation aimed at unilaterally disapplying key provisions of the protocol has been reported in the US media.
However, it is not a big story. The dilemma for the Biden administration on whether the president should go to Saudi Arabia and meet its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, received far more traction.
As a presidential candidate, Biden had been very critical of the Saudi regime’s human rights record, including the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a US resident and Washington Post columnist.
However, the high principles of opposition are now clashing with the realpolitik of government. Biden needs to coax the Saudis to produce more oil if soaring prices are to be curbed.
After the British announcement on its protocol legislation, the White House made it clear it wanted to see a deal between the UK and the EU. It stressed it strongly supported the Belfast [Good Friday] Agreement, which is one of the few foreign policy areas that have full backing from Democrats and Republicans.
It recognised the implementation of the protocol had presented “challenges” but urged the UK and EU to get back to the table.
“We have welcomed the provisions in the EU-UK Trade and co-operation Agreement and the Northern Ireland protocol as a way to manage the practical challenges of preserving distinct EU and UK markets while preventing the return of customs infrastructure on the land border,” it said.
“We support a strong and close EU-UK partnership. Transatlantic peace, security, and prosperity are best served by a strong UK, a strong EU, and the closest possible relationship between the two.”
However, the White House seemed unprepared to take sides openly. When press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked at a briefing whether the British move would become an impediment to the US-UK trade dialogue scheduled for Boston this month or a potential future US-UK trade deal, she replied: “No, I don’t believe it will be.”
As a candidate, Biden had argued strongly that the Good Friday accord could not become a “casualty of Brexit”. He insisted that any UK-US trade agreement “must be contingent upon respect for the agreement and preventing the return of a hard border.”
US trade deals have to be approved by Congress and in particular by its powerful ways and means committee, which is chaired by leading Irish American politician Richard Neal. He has made it clear that while such an agreement may be desirable, he would not entertain it if there was any jeopardy to the Belfast Agreement.
In the meantime, the lobbying between the British and Irish for influence in Washington continued last week. Boris Johnson’s envoy to the US on the protocol, Conor Burns, was back on Capitol Hill for the third time in recent months.
Members of the Oireachtas committee on the Good Friday agreement were also in Washington, in some instances meeting the very same people as Burns but offering different perspectives.
The leading Irish American politicians issued a joint statement denouncing the British protocol legislation.
Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer made strong comments which are likely to be welcomed in Dublin. He criticised British legislation for dealing with legacy issues arising from the Troubles and also warned that “rash, unilateral actions” that threatened international agreements would undermine support in Congress for any bilateral trade proposal.
The ad hoc group to protect the Good Friday agreement, which comprises former ambassadors and politicians as well as Irish American groups, went further.
Bad faith
It accused the British of acting in bad faith and said the US could not be neutral. It urged Biden to warn the British what was at risk and, if necessary, to suspend any talks on trade until the protocol legislation was rescinded.
Some figures who are very familiar with Capitol Hill expressed fears privately during the week that the Ukraine war could reawaken cold war-style sentiments that the strategic interests of the US may be best served by closer alignment to the UK given the traditional military and security links.
Shortly afterwards former Trump national security adviser John Bolton popped up with an article essentially arguing that Ireland had nothing to offer from a security perspective and Washington needed a politically strong UK to lead Nato.
It is hard to believe that British ministers and diplomats are not making the same case in private, particularly to Republicans who may hold key roles after the mid-terms.
At the end of their visit, chairman of the Good Friday agreement committee Fergus O’Dowd told The Irish Times the Government and the Oireachtas needed to take stock. He said the Government and the Oireachtas needed to beef up their political presence in Washington with more regular visits to reinforce their message about the need to uphold the Good Friday accord.